IPO · resolved market
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba327456e78c9d6debae96fb12917bcffea2afff7371985c64a39b7c865c066a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 36c | 489.78$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.39 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 29c | 247.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 189.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 32c | 148.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…0099backed Yes | 66c | 116.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 14c | 79.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed No | 68c | 69.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 49c | 61.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 65c | 60.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 73c | 56.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 66c | 45.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 34c | 32.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed No | 64c | 25.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…7a91backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?this page
- Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.