IPO · resolved market
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfde22a478a60193a260d846ca80139a58758e13bb2dab7a52c2a1c7edafb104d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 4c | 11,895$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa992…cdb9backed No | 53c | 1,520$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.59 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 34c | 731.62$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.24 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 59c | 585$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 393.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…b65ebacked Yes | 27c | 222$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 46c | 158.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 158.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 45c | 150.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 39c | 145.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 70c | 138.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 44c | 97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…3e9fbacked Yes | 58c | 93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 55c | 89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ab…cd60backed Yes | 58c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…06cbbacked Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 72c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 51c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 41c | 71.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 71.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 74c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 48.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eca…0685backed Yes | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…a4a8backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 42c | 35.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed Yes | 58c | 33.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…b7e7backed No | 41c | 31.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…65d6backed Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…1302backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…ec39backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…1c22backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…1d81backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…31dbbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 76c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?this page
- Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.