TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x608f…9065

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
167
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Commodities, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 61 out of 100; worst World Politics at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT4477.3%34 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Weather — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-61.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.75
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.74
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+79.4%+$79.63
Will Colin Sutton win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$269.23
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$7.83
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$48.5
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.6
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.87
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$38
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.25
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.5
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+91.3%+$33.39
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$17.67
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+129.9%+$56.5
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$38
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.75
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 40%-42%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.5
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.78
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$8.13
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$5.3
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$508Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$199.07
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$4.06
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.57
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+124.7%+$22.2
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$18
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.87
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+121%+$15.08
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$29.2
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$19.14
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will ITG's market cap be between $2.7B and $3.3B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.33
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.67
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$9.89
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.19
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
All 8 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+184%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+84.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Valorant — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$16.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournamentbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+29%+$22.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$123.95
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.