Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24cc5581f913825a3dbc46f1d88b54f88239da82490dbe0958fa37c32b6bfbf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 7,971$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 30c | 2,645$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.36 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,904$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.45 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 39c | 1,526$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.49 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 6c | 953.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 763.59$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 569.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 546.41$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 28c | 446.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 59c | 363.97$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.44 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 34c | 339.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 333.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.74 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 73c | 324.12$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 314.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 17c | 303.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed No | 71c | 300$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 277$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 9c | 265.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 76c | 249.28$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0958backed No | 75c | 245.79$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 61c | 237.78$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 71c | 232.29$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 230.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 222.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 218$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 205.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 205.86$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 29c | 203$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 56c | 203$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 189.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 184.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 183.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 60c | 162.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked No | 74c | 160.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 15c | 152.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 59c | 143.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 31c | 138.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed No | 77c | 136.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 134.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef2…d233backed Yes | 30c | 132.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 31c | 130.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 76c | 130.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 23c | 125.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 9c | 122.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 122.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 59c | 121.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 116.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 114.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 30c | 110.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 23c | 108.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 13c | 104.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 103.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes | 80c | 100.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 100.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 99.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 23c | 99.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1721…3c59backed Yes | 29c | 97.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 80c | 94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 25c | 91.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 90.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 26c | 90.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 19c | 85.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 24c | 82.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 14c | 79.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 53c | 77.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 74.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 20c | 70.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 14c | 69.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 43c | 68.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 23c | 68.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked No | 74c | 67.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed No | 73c | 65.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…96c9backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 29c | 64.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 18c | 63.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 58c | 63.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…e686backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.