TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,095
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,095 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c7,971$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.583,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes30c2,645$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.3628925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes29c1,904$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.4533929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No39c1,526$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.4948743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes6c953.89$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8215433.8%52 W · 102 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c763.59$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.065,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes24c569.64$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.984,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c546.41$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.726,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes28c446.94$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3530832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes59c363.97$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4455336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…afe6backed Yes34c339.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11527226.5%72 W · 200 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No54c333.39$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.741,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked No73c324.12$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8668338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes12c314.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.819,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes17c303.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0431836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0358…95a4backed No71c300$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.897441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c277$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.755,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes9c265.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1561820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes7c249.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…afd7backed No76c249.28$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.588041.3%33 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ef…0958backed No75c245.79$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.081827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed No61c237.78$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3447432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked No71c232.29$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1537532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c230.67$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No19c222.81$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.292,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c218$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.944,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98f8…394dbacked Yes29c206.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c205.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.652,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c205.86$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes29c203$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.634922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes56c203$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5223633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d9…1b48backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.479040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes25c199.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.721,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes27c189.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.215,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No49c184.12$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.491,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No31c183.69$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.061,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes60c162.94$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7627129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked No74c160.66$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5210023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes15c152.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9249622.2%110 W · 386 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3823941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No59c143.42$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.416641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes31c138.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0227029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51da…a701backed No77c136.33$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No59c134.61$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.251,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef2…d233backed Yes30c132.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes31c130.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8717524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No76c130.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8224262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes23c125.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8854234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes9c122.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No77c122.08$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No59c121.29$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2680957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No49c116.44$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.042,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No57c114.96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.953,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed No30c110.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8523143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes23c108.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No13c104.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.852,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c103.98$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.493,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes80c100.72$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.581010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-83%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c100.18$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.511,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468538.8%33 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8546232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb80b…b047backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+114.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1656921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8820631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa83c…a8f4backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes23c99.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No23c99.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.772,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1721…3c59backed Yes29c97.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes29c95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5547423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x702e…4357backed Yes80c94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.220832.7%68 W · 140 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes25c91.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8413553.3%72 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes14c90.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.913,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4989…983ebacked Yes26c90.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6233626.8%90 W · 246 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No34c90$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes19c85.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.371,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes24c82.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6243…e014backed No14c79.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2623243.5%101 W · 131 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No53c77.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7864460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c74.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.197,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.292,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd702…2087backed Yes20c70.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.244052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No19c70$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.717324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…08ecbacked Yes14c69.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102548%12 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde67…c144backed No43c68.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1114835.8%53 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e9…02babacked Yes23c68.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.763534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b41…b5cebacked No74c67.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.251428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-50.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e0b…e169backed No73c65.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.465228.8%15 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb6b…96c9backed Yes31c65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758d…9548backed Yes29c64.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.415133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes18c63.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.35238.5%20 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes58c63.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.514635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb1…e80cbacked No16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.59965.7%65 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9327…9800backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d2b…e686backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.751145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27c…5da2backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes24c59.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.