Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ff89b105238bca4d1a540df8898bd15bcef9b686cbb5dc4d69aade56d4a893e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,027$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…3af8backed Yes | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 12c | 782.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 10c | 735.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 705.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 698$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…d020backed Yes | 4c | 665.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 6c | 660$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 3c | 499.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 2c | 487.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 4c | 435.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0958backed Yes | 8c | 405.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 384.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 9c | 270.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…62a2backed Yes | 9c | 256.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 225.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 12c | 215.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 176.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 17c | 175$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 12c | 169.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…9b51backed Yes | 18c | 151.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 122.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 16c | 93.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 18c | 84.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 19c | 71.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 21c | 53.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 80c | 15.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.