Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036cf7f6da184f90a28ef8b964cfc59723c7bac37998d47790150204cf2fd465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 11c | 2,013$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.15 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 9c | 1,961$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.11 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,644$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,173$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 21c | 1,033$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.08 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…3af8backed Yes | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 840.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 813.25$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.38 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…0f21backed Yes | 1c | 713.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 4c | 666.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 575.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 4c | 551.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 424.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 413.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 16c | 398.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 386.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 365.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 12c | 347.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 317$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…ea7ebacked Yes | 6c | 275.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 253.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 22c | 224.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Yes | 7c | 223.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…ccb8backed Yes | 16c | 220.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 25c | 206.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 184.14$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 77c | 183.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 175.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 13c | 171.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 157.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 147.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 26c | 144.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 131.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 118$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 22c | 116.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 105.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…e1b2backed No | 74c | 104.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 102.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…ee5fbacked Yes | 23c | 100.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 87.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 84.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc693…6656backed No | 78c | 77.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 26c | 77.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 20c | 74.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 70.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 22c | 68.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…62a2backed Yes | 23c | 67.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 18c | 66.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 26c | 66.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 24c | 62.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 61.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 22c | 61.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 26c | 55.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 54.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 54.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7564…74cdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 46.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 45.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 74c | 45.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 42.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…6041backed No | 75c | 36.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 35.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 27.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 75c | 26.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd77…eef1backed No | 75c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407a…52b0backed No | 75c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 77c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.