Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24b90418f6812832cb548dbb3b1c12aee88b79e37baedede982417a7c0db18e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 47c | 2,601$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.97 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed No | 2c | 2,258$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 62c | 1,871$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.9 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 1c | 1,720$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 1,445$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 1c | 1,145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 1,094$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.05 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 76c | 872.86$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.34 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 586.33$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 572.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 30c | 563.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.2 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 52c | 555.47$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.47 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 72c | 552.93$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.15 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 68c | 549.02$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 543.03$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 477.45$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 420.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 403.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 397$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 395.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 382$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 63c | 333.25$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 26c | 317.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.62 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 298.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 22c | 274.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 18c | 266.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 265$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 251.75$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 42c | 247.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.02 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 245.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 42c | 242.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.33 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 232.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 38c | 207.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 206.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.01 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 14c | 203.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.17 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 60c | 201.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf14d…379cbacked Yes | 32c | 190.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +217.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 184.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 25c | 183$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 182.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 17c | 173.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.94 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…ea7ebacked No | 6c | 168.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 26c | 162.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 42c | 160$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 159.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 50c | 145.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 56c | 143$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 15c | 140.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 18c | 138$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 78c | 137.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 125.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 125.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 32c | 123.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 117.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 117.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 21c | 116.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 43c | 115.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 39c | 108.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 102.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 102.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118e…b5cebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…cb5dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 24c | 97.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 92.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 33c | 91.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…850ebacked No | 76c | 91.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 90.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 88.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 46c | 87.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 29c | 87.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 86.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 34c | 86.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 84.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…2b86backed Yes | 36c | 82.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 36c | 82.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 25c | 82.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 37c | 82.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1721…3c59backed Yes | 38c | 78.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 69.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…96c9backed Yes | 36c | 67.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 31c | 64.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 28c | 63.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 63.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…e686backed Yes | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 36c | 62.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 45c | 59.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.