Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83a77ebdd51de03302e736ba66c9d2285da508f7b282814a84ab5129b3098e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 1c | 14,093$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked Yes | 51c | 13,501$6,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,926.26 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 44c | 7,284$3,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,092.85 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 59c | 5,404$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.22 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes | 48c | 3,365$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 3,326$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.89 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,191$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.77 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…931cbacked No | 70c | 3,158$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…2f40backed Yes | 68c | 3,098$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 35c | 3,062$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.53 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 74c | 2,796$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.49 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc7…2ff6backed No | 44c | 2,576$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 62c | 2,421$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 78c | 2,313$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 10c | 2,093$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.49 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 1c | 2,013$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…7234backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.48 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 49c | 1,677$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.59 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed Yes | 35c | 1,566$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 57c | 1,505$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 18c | 1,300$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 15c | 1,221$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 69c | 1,218$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.43 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,165$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…11bcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,076$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 10cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 12c | 1,040$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,010$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 74c | 987.57$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.03 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 59c | 951.1$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.53 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…c2b0backed No | 68c | 915$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 67c | 838.99$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.8 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 79c | 802.33$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 67c | 777.05$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.35 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 58c | 768.95$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.47 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 47c | 691.94$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.69 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…09f1backed Yes | 22c | 646.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 78c | 630$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 57c | 599.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…bc0cbacked Yes | 22c | 599.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 37c | 599.34$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 16c | 560$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked No | 48c | 516.29$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.34 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb048…7f07backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed Yes | 22c | 487.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 17c | 487.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 29c | 470.72$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 33c | 461.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.35 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 57c | 451.78$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.05 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 44c | 450.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 52c | 449.15$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.99 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 416.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb285…68d3backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed No | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…b853backed Yes | 13c | 379.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…c40bbacked Yes | 74c | 349.89$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Yes | 68c | 336$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 73c | 333$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.53 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 13c | 326$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.52 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 317$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 48c | 299.93$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 65c | 294.71$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 285.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 55c | 284.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 280.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 79c | 279.26$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…a90cbacked Yes | 34c | 269.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Yes | 76c | 261.23$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…e8babacked Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…becfbacked No | 71c | 254.07$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 59c | 241.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.25 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…2ee5backed Yes | 34c | 238.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 65c | 235.35$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed No | 58c | 227.04$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 24c | 219.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.78 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 57c | 218.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 43c | 218.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 36c | 214.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 23c | 209.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 208.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 62c | 207.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 63c | 206.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed No | 22c | 202.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.74 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 18c | 197.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 13c | 194.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 50c | 188.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 188$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…aedfbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 66c | 186.69$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 27c | 185.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…54a4backed No | 75c | 184$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…01ffbacked No | 20c | 182.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +175.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 77c | 175$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 46c | 174.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…5797backed Yes | 78c | 167.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…c854backed No | 54c | 165.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2edfbacked Yes | 11c | 165.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 32c | 163.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.