Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd705a4a30361064ff57dfced2c0b1e2decb312e5f9ba083cc06a8c76c228f788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 12c | 5,376$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.59 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 3c | 3,610$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 3,156$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.41 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 19c | 2,659$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,400$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.7 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 36c | 2,145$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.09 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 1,988$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.86 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked No | 68c | 1,914$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.59 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 34c | 1,658$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.59 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 1,575$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.11 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed Yes | 40c | 1,442$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.04 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 67c | 1,290$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.35 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 26c | 1,250$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.94 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 28c | 1,249$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.52 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 20c | 1,143$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.18 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 1,053$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.87 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 32c | 960.17$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 76c | 916.36$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.36 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 17c | 903.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed Yes | 35c | 868.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 27c | 815.41$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…4668backed Yes | 18c | 811.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 18c | 800$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed No | 69c | 730.28$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 71c | 645.71$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 65c | 614.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.01 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…ce4fbacked No | 72c | 579.67$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 19c | 565.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 556.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…70ccbacked Yes | 40c | 543.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778b…4e2dbacked Yes | 14c | 490.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 79c | 434.31$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 19c | 419.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 63c | 409.97$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 400$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked No | 80c | 397.18$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 69c | 387.57$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…41d7backed No | 64c | 381.79$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…b853backed Yes | 24c | 369.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 73c | 353.39$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 36c | 350.46$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 26c | 349.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…b4aabacked Yes | 32c | 344.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 23c | 318.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 33c | 306.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2edfbacked Yes | 19c | 302.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes | 25c | 298.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 66c | 282.54$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 276.46$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…ab0bbacked Yes | 36c | 274.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 265.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619d…b31cbacked Yes | 12c | 257.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b6…eda1backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes | 39c | 238.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 219.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 33c | 213.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 8c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 19c | 179.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 37c | 176.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 167.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed Yes | 30c | 164.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 39c | 163.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 37c | 161.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 25c | 161.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…0b29backed Yes | 32c | 158.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…1091backed Yes | 58c | 155.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…1515backed Yes | 29c | 154.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…e2a3backed Yes | 33c | 151.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…d784backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…b245backed Yes | 27c | 148.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…697cbacked Yes | 27c | 143.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cc…a458backed Yes | 43c | 141$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 21c | 139.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649b…dadcbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…b553backed Yes | 32c | 138$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 19c | 133.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaf…9971backed No | 65c | 122.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 13c | 121.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…a947backed Yes | 8c | 120.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…5449backed Yes | 38c | 117.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 61c | 116.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 11c | 108.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 27c | 108.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 14c | 103.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…7df4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…1dc7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…0295backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 28c | 92.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.