Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73250e6360cdfda3f655298f3bce39ad820edeb2d9d340d765d3a0664310988f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 16c | 4,522$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.18 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…e050backed Yes | 19c | 4,309$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 22c | 3,350$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 16c | 1,975$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.49 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 27c | 1,649$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.51 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,447$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.52 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,295$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 4c | 1,281$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 12c | 1,037$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 10c | 1,004$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 5c | 992.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 852.46$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 26c | 842.47$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 53c | 822.64$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.97 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 14c | 799.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…70ccbacked Yes | 23c | 750$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 662.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 28c | 659.5$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 77c | 641.25$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.15 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 67c | 597.77$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.77 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 24c | 549.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 21c | 546.22$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 37c | 486.49$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 12c | 480$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…b4aabacked Yes | 33c | 470.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed Yes | 27c | 466.62$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 45c | 447.03$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 446$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 16c | 434.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 71c | 428.87$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 4c | 423.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 11c | 405.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 401.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…08bcbacked Yes | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 17c | 386.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 26c | 385.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked Yes | 27c | 373.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…b853backed Yes | 6c | 364.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 27c | 339.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 72c | 327.03$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 315.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 307.77$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 11c | 271.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 39c | 263.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 18c | 259.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 20c | 250.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 75c | 249$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 19c | 244.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 15c | 228.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 9c | 223.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 48c | 210$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 42c | 200.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 11c | 194.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 32c | 192.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 17c | 181.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 13c | 176$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 27c | 162.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Yes | 25c | 159.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 11c | 155.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eff…ec23backed Yes | 35c | 141.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 30c | 140.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 16c | 133.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 75c | 127.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…5449backed Yes | 48c | 120.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c9…716bbacked Yes | 50c | 115.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 21c | 109.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…e021backed Yes | 15c | 103.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 72c | 97.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 31c | 90.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 18c | 85.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…1dc7backed Yes | 30c | 82.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 39c | 77.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 73.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…87f7backed Yes | 19c | 67.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 37c | 64.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 27c | 62.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 51.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…5bf7backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 26c | 47.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…1515backed Yes | 35c | 45.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed Yes | 23c | 45.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 35.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 39c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 33.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 42c | 31.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 40c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652c…08fabacked No | 79c | 25.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…6e5bbacked Yes | 50c | 23.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.