Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d2086d979dd61ad63374caf155a31ad4137f7a5e2562a0b5ea464f831b5ef8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 9,138$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…f56fbacked No | 1c | 4,764$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 4c | 3,650$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 5c | 3,636$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 9c | 2,855$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,608.65 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 14c | 2,124$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.57 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…b853backed No | 1c | 2,074$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 1,440$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed No | 1c | 1,415$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 69c | 1,277$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.93 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 934.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 56c | 671$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.87 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 38c | 589.68$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.08 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 52c | 420$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 14c | 355.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 33c | 331.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 22c | 324.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 65c | 305.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 75c | 299.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 52c | 296.15$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 63c | 288$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 19c | 264.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 7c | 241.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 48c | 239.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…55b0backed No | 22c | 228.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 64c | 222.07$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 220.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 6c | 210.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 195.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 10c | 179.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 53c | 166.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 60c | 164.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 44c | 151$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…937bbacked Yes | 67c | 148.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 10c | 143.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 32c | 140.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…74a9backed Yes | 75c | 134.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 22c | 130.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 79c | 126.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 74cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 25c | 118.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes | 79c | 105.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…38f8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 60c | 99.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked No | 51c | 98.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…2ee5backed Yes | 51c | 98.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 52c | 95.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 26c | 93.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x475e…3a28backed Yes | 56c | 89.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed No | 52c | 81.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…b6b2backed No | 21c | 72.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 52c | 72.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bf…75b5backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…d1c6backed Yes | 45c | 66.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 52c | 62.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…6e35backed No | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 33c | 56.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 72c | 55.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 55.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 49c | 48.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 49c | 43.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 42.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 61c | 39.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…bed9backed Yes | 46c | 39.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed No | 46c | 36.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 48c | 33.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…46f5backed Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 52c | 29.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x171b…ddcdbacked No | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 47c | 26.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…8688backed Yes | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…2150backed No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7b…0f76backed No | 49c | 21.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8d…29eebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.