Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaacb2d891e50062ab341f0ea450adef245e1a44f502207accbc07ce5dbf307e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 0c | 20,099$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,450$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…486fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,129$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a12…5636backed Yes | 1c | 3,376$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 2,200$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.31 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,162$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed Yes | 1c | 1,950$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,933$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 5c | 1,783$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,519$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,470$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,120$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 1,097$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 952.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 736.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 571.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 4c | 538$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 67c | 499.99$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.22 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 14c | 411.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 62c | 364.54$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.53 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 79c | 346.17$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177d…0867backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 8c | 270.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 5c | 269.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 63c | 258$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c27…dee0backed Yes | 8c | 199.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 5c | 188.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 6c | 186.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…909dbacked Yes | 11c | 182.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…5487backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 74c | 154.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 123.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 39c | 121$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 36c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 60.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 67c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…2a51backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…3ca9backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…f2acbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 78c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.