Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa807e5a89d5371adc5b2d62310374dc1a58b34b28276f8d91108d419cee01b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 73c | 2,332$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.01 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,905$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 1,874$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.03 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 24c | 1,400$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.99 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,281$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 12c | 1,200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 48c | 1,165$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.06 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 19c | 1,127$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.22 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked No | 74c | 1,089$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 78c | 893.86$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 36c | 814.7$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.68 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 51c | 745.04$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed No | 40c | 686.03$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 23cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 12c | 644.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2edfbacked Yes | 6c | 628.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 624.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 25c | 622.42$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 29c | 616.1$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.62 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 608.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.32 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 50c | 579.33$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…a9dabacked No | 35c | 572.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 555.56$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.76 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 17c | 545.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…2ee5backed Yes | 19c | 539.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 42c | 530.91$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.06 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 20c | 504.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.47 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 61c | 502.67$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.84 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 20c | 462.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.98 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 73c | 449.2$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 20c | 445.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.21 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…50e9backed Yes | 41c | 430.87$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked No | 45c | 424.84$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 47c | 420.21$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.7 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 39c | 411.53$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.65 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…c994backed Yes | 69c | 371.27$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 37c | 347.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.97 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 58c | 336.22$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked Yes | 32c | 313.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 17c | 310.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +471.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 309.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 32c | 295.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 79c | 275.23$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda37…1d00backed Yes | 75c | 267.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 58c | 259.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…6163backed Yes | 77c | 259$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecd…d63fbacked No | 49c | 258.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 256.84$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 15c | 250$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 39c | 241.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…802dbacked No | 47c | 234.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4d33backed Yes | 80c | 220$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 35c | 218.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked No | 75c | 212$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 43c | 205.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 200.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 13c | 188.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…9251backed No | 60c | 185.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e3…92cebacked No | 40c | 184.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +305.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 60c | 180$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d21…d96abacked Yes | 35c | 176.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed No | 34c | 165.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 14c | 160$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 35c | 147$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…e1d4backed Yes | 69c | 145.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 143.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 19c | 142.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 72c | 140$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9098…6dacbacked Yes | 74c | 135.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 38c | 133.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed Yes | 75c | 133.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…becfbacked No | 61c | 130.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 37c | 125.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 53c | 111$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 23c | 110.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 54c | 103.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 11c | 102.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…9408backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…bd91backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 53c | 93.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 38c | 89.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 18c | 87.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 70c | 86.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 82.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdf…a4cabacked Yes | 73c | 81.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…34b7backed Yes | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 80.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 23c | 79.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 58c | 77.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes | 66c | 76.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 49c | 74.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.