TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,542 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes6c4,602$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes18c3,556$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.2742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes5c2,501$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.462742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes27c1,400$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.682147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+121%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No74c1,338$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.0911859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed Yes29c1,251$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.931717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes13c1,240$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4638247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3524…e34ebacked Yes49c1,232$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002045%9 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes7c1,184$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.53040%12 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c1,021$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.0467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes38c984.57$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.18922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f8…70ccbacked Yes10c960.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No55c960.04$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.5836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes15c756.85$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3818246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes3c745.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2127233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c705.04$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1834234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No63c639.73$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.7312152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes33c629.19$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5511615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cc…a458backed Yes34c580$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes27c510$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.325518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes11c503.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.435829.3%17 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes32c498.44$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.367520%15 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes27c497.11$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0915740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes13c465$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6522227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c92…9627backed Yes39c460.59$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803225%8 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c409.41$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3386542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked No78c384.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.612268.2%15 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No66c382.43$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2730635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes36c356.62$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3816739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes32c347.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5122333.2%74 W · 149 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes33c331.15$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.835921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07f2…ee29backed Yes36c325.46$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.281540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes30c304.55$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3886…a93dbacked Yes12c300$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes5c290.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.419736.1%35 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No75c278.08$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9728827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5519…7040backed Yes4c256.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+365.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed Yes27c244$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No68c228.24$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.849023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes23c225$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7512343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a22…fca9backed Yes45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c204.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No61c199.53$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.824052.5%21 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bea…224dbacked Yes27c185.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.061844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283d…221abacked Yes35c183.76$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.942142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Yes50c176$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No56c161$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9720239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes13c160$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4930…82abbacked Yes27c160$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.22740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f12…4e57backed Yes39c148.72$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5890%0 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes22c148.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8617111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd87…6bf9backed Yes11c131.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bf…75b5backed No77c126.53$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.513542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes21c125.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.929714.4%14 W · 83 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d4e…7a5fbacked Yes45c110.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+68.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fc…1515backed Yes35c100.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277136.6%26 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.435536.4%20 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6090…6dbbbacked Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf53a…7970backed Yes29c98.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.71822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-51.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes15c96.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0220131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.88644.2%38 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca5…80f5backed Yes32c87.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.631838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad2d…6d8dbacked Yes14c86.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ab…8253backed Yes45c84.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc42…3679backed Yes47c79.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes19c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed No59c68.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.075754.4%31 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed Yes35c66.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.666043.3%26 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes42c66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7231344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed Yes26c61.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No66c58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.721250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No77c56.57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.012055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes26c48.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4585725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes53c46.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.611559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb124…7380backed Yes49c41.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes42c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9617359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c32.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes33c32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.462846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes45c31.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1813138.2%50 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x525a…7f07backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce9…7115backed No66c22.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2000…3f97backed No54c19.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.961729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.