Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe17f375e232325b713db9d909b35c9b7e46784e7d221a4b901b5c0ef617c6f2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 2,530$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.93 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 1,381$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.72 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,268$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 53c | 1,094$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.22 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0761…ad5cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,068$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 25c | 1,053$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 14c | 793.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 729.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 5c | 676.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked No | 73c | 648.42$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.77 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 5c | 573.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked No | 75c | 536.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 60c | 504.2$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.52 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 12c | 453.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 40c | 448.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 29c | 308.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed Yes | 27c | 279.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 18c | 276.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeac…b326backed Yes | 16c | 268.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed Yes | 43c | 239.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 30c | 231.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 214$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 35c | 210$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 21c | 201.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 18c | 191.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 184.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 48c | 183.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 174.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 14c | 144.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 144.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 20c | 134$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 118.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 110.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…221abacked Yes | 26c | 109.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 97.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 47c | 77.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 52c | 73.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…1515backed Yes | 42c | 71.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 60c | 67.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 24c | 60.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…824ebacked Yes | 24c | 45.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…cdf4backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.