Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f5b0c11d2ca15f24e8ec8da647fed7db927d1f5ea6f83b51054a032930f4b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 19c | 2,379$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.82 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 2,045$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.52 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…74a9backed Yes | 62c | 1,376$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,245$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.82 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,176$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 12c | 1,096$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.01 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 23c | 1,071$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.56 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 35c | 1,020$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.14 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 57c | 920.51$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.54 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 49c | 880.98$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.93 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 33c | 790.25$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.93 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 9c | 765.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 34c | 737.98$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.95 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 15c | 720.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0424backed Yes | 58c | 690.76$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 42c | 645.22$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 21c | 599.84$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.88 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…50e9backed Yes | 54c | 577.72$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.09 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 15c | 555$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…aa1cbacked No | 74c | 516.72$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 505.83$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 17c | 499.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 32c | 493.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 32c | 462.53$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.93 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…0d9fbacked Yes | 78c | 448.49$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 11c | 439.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed Yes | 25c | 434$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 45c | 408.67$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 57c | 400.41$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 26c | 386.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 80c | 371.1$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 26c | 350$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked No | 55c | 341.84$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…937bbacked Yes | 66c | 309.11$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 38c | 301.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 45c | 298.54$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 33c | 273.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 16c | 273$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 37c | 272.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.08 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd67…77b2backed No | 39c | 257.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 256.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeac…b326backed Yes | 17c | 254.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 41c | 253.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked Yes | 79c | 244.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…c4c9backed Yes | 64c | 233.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed Yes | 58c | 230.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 26c | 230.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 24c | 229.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 40c | 227.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 42c | 216.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 186.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 42c | 176.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 35c | 176$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 35c | 174.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475e…3a28backed Yes | 54c | 165.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 58c | 164.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…e1d4backed Yes | 61c | 162.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 160.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 60c | 160$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes | 67c | 159.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 58c | 159.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 48c | 159.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 13c | 157.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…c994backed Yes | 59c | 154.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…0e74backed Yes | 74c | 152$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked No | 58c | 151.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 62c | 150.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9098…6dacbacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2e06backed Yes | 79c | 133.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 79cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 69c | 128.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…5797backed Yes | 24c | 126.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 70c | 118$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes | 56c | 116.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bf…75b5backed No | 78c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…a483backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…54afbacked Yes | 36c | 109.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked No | 39c | 108$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…8273backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 77c | 107$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed Yes | 70c | 101.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…1515backed Yes | 40c | 99.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 47c | 98.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 91.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 61c | 91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…7a5fbacked Yes | 56c | 89.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…becfbacked No | 46c | 86.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 73c | 85.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.