Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b657c83de4d0142ab99818031f3f8490253aa328ec1ead75045520a60c85170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 17,829$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed No | 4c | 6,030$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 2,153$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 1c | 2,025$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 1c | 2,011$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 1,383$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 42c | 1,250$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.13 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed No | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 12c | 1,043$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.32 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 3c | 1,025$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 1,002$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 72c | 878.27$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.61 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 2c | 782.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 60c | 640$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 12c | 639.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 59c | 637.99$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.89 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…6381backed No | 9c | 545.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 7c | 540$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 74c | 533.63$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 9c | 532.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…b21ebacked No | 8c | 443.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 67c | 420.4$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.66 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 413.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 49c | 407.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.73 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 387.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 361.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 14c | 317.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 58c | 305.92$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 79c | 299.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…c562backed Yes | 36c | 275$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…e1d4backed Yes | 39c | 253.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 238.76$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 13c | 236.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 7c | 236.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 70c | 210$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…1a88backed No | 7c | 208.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 43c | 202.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked No | 66c | 200.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 6c | 199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed No | 52c | 185.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 51c | 180$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…8e30backed Yes | 80c | 173.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 71c | 144$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…7ea7backed No | 13c | 127.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…2239backed Yes | 42c | 118.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 64c | 115.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…2b60backed No | 13c | 114.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 18cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2e06backed Yes | 62c | 109.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 11c | 106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994d…e0afbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda3…618dbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 31c | 95.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 57c | 94.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed Yes | 37c | 90.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…d1c6backed Yes | 46c | 89.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 88.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 26c | 84.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 75.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778b…4e2dbacked Yes | 36c | 74.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 62c | 72.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 36c | 63.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 28c | 59.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 34c | 50.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 40c | 50.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 54c | 48.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8c…5330backed Yes | 39c | 46.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbe…100abacked Yes | 69c | 43.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x475e…3a28backed Yes | 35c | 42.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…2150backed No | 64c | 42.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 41.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…08efbacked Yes | 79c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…3921backed Yes | 58c | 35.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 66c | 30.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 42c | 29.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…a11dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…221abacked Yes | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…8688backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 70c | 24.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…3a2abacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…02eabacked No | 67c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…5b4bbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…4f96backed No | 61c | 19.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…2f76backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.