Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436d9d06828e37aeb8056bae347f879a506c898c8dd893aa049c65942a3664bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 14,650$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 1c | 6,839$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 9c | 2,367$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.52 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 2,339$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 25c | 1,988$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.08 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 1c | 1,314$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 1,271$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.32 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 701.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.22 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked No | 2c | 638.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 588.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed No | 4c | 570.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 8c | 562.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 56c | 477.05$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.88 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 6c | 476.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 79c | 439.81$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 65c | 404.75$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 59c | 401.62$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 51c | 394.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes | 57c | 369.81$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 333.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 24c | 315.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 9c | 310.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…937bbacked Yes | 74c | 270.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 37c | 266.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…7040backed No | 7c | 257.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed No | 46c | 233.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 57c | 233.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 56c | 230$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2ebebacked Yes | 44c | 228.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 65c | 211.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 198.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…3771backed No | 42c | 192.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 24c | 190.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…1d38backed Yes | 66c | 179.53$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 23c | 170$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 9c | 168.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 67c | 150.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7b…0f76backed No | 17c | 144.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 76c | 141$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…cf2cbacked Yes | 76c | 132.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 69c | 129.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 39c | 124.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 76c | 122.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked No | 35c | 122$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 78c | 119.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 19c | 119.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 57c | 118.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 22c | 101.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 59c | 100.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 76c | 96.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 93.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 71c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 34c | 87.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…d1c6backed Yes | 47c | 87.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 80c | 74.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 18c | 73.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 29c | 72.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed No | 75c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 52c | 65.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…6e35backed No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 65c | 59.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed No | 70c | 58.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 48c | 58.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 37c | 55.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 54.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…e0d4backed Yes | 58c | 52.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…809cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 48.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x994d…e0afbacked Yes | 25c | 45.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…f7d8backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed Yes | 40c | 44.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 69c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…9d52backed Yes | 70c | 42.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x062b…774abacked Yes | 49c | 41.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…9fbabacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…a483backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…38f8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 38.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 71c | 38.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…e395backed Yes | 52c | 36.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 55c | 35.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 58c | 32.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…93dcbacked No | 43c | 32.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…5f9cbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed Yes | 66c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.