Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea34f37974c5f80aac8d52143d6089ae80300c863219952370f437f4317c420c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 13,703$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc7…2ff6backed Yes | 79c | 6,669$5,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,291.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 46c | 5,801$2,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150.57 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 50c | 5,479$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.19 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 29c | 4,694$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315.82 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 55c | 3,955$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.18 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 42c | 3,255$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.39 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf505…7a35backed Yes | 73c | 2,790$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 2,738$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.62 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 55c | 2,516$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.35 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 51c | 2,411$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.77 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 59c | 2,000$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.29 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 36c | 1,811$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.55 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed No | 12c | 1,582$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 24c | 1,462$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.74 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 1,367$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.37 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…ccfbbacked No | 38c | 1,327$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 21c | 1,310$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.11 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…09f1backed No | 32c | 1,237$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 33c | 1,192$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.87 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 31c | 1,162$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.94 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,103$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.49 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 47c | 1,099$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.16 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 57c | 1,068$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 41c | 1,041$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.48 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 47c | 985.16$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.83 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 930.21$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.58 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 12c | 896.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 35c | 888.56$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.56 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 40c | 754.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…2641backed Yes | 60c | 715.63$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 63c | 671.76$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.84 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 32c | 645.47$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.65 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 33c | 633.91$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.68 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 611.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 71c | 559.5$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 42c | 533.07$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.28 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 48c | 503.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.3 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…25b0backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 62c | 495.99$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.43 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 47c | 480.63$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 41c | 469.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.15 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked No | 39c | 464.11$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 48c | 461.74$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 36c | 458.76$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.44 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked No | 45c | 446.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…5eb9backed No | 45c | 443.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 67c | 410.97$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.32 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2ebebacked Yes | 76c | 392.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 42c | 392.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 357$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 64c | 345.74$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.7 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb403…dcabbacked No | 33c | 342.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…2ee5backed Yes | 33c | 303.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 46c | 300$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 7c | 295.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.35 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 63c | 288.65$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 21c | 283.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 27c | 275.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 67c | 268.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.98 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 56c | 264.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 11c | 262.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.58 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 61c | 251$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 33c | 240$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 25c | 239.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…dfb9backed Yes | 73c | 236$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…e1d4backed Yes | 43c | 231.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 230.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 61c | 224$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 34c | 205.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 57c | 198.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 11c | 196.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 56c | 184.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…aafabacked No | 57c | 184.64$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 42c | 184.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 35c | 182.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 179.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…7b44backed No | 45c | 178.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 22c | 164.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 11c | 159.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.53 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe6…2769backed Yes | 63c | 159.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…01ffbacked No | 32c | 158.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +175.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 153.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 56c | 151.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 67c | 150.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 9c | 150$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed No | 21c | 150$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…37aabacked No | 34c | 147.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 66c | 135.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…aedfbacked Yes | 48c | 134.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed Yes | 62c | 133.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 126.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…1fc8backed No | 13c | 124.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +280%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…4e3abacked Yes | 21c | 123.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 56c | 122.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.