TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,045 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes4c3,650$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.62742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes5c2,270$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.637948.1%38 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes13c2,141$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe23…937bbacked Yes64c942.55$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed No42c541.8$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.547520%15 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed Yes62c521$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.496331.7%20 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No49c502.61$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.0614147.5%67 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c489.1$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes11c485$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c423$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.432217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked No55c394.35$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.353265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes8c383.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7317111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79bf…bcdfbacked No73c366$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.481330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No32c359.12$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.9249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes58c353$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0611615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes27c321.34$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1112343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4930…82abbacked Yes30c284.51$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f15…f295backed Yes19c276.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.532128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+45.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c257.33$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No66c245.64$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7730635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes12c229.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2428827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd33c…0b81backed Yes32c227.19$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.881921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+229.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No38c214.97$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.282055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa264…3b18backed Yes35c209$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed No35c199.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.224454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x475e…3a28backed Yes65c191.66$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22a9…97babacked Yes54c185.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d3…eda0backed No80c185.5$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes30c175$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7522333.2%74 W · 149 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes62c161.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No43c152.36$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9534234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad0…1153backed Yes13c151.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+45.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c151.2$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.341464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes26c149.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.421726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No39c148.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6336227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No67c145.37$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5911859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No70c143.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6118246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed Yes59c142.85$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843718.9%7 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb74b…b853backed Yes8c142.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…31f2backed Yes54c134$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.191729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc262…6587backed Yes43c132.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes54c131$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.741957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes22c125.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.329714.4%14 W · 83 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Yes80c125.78$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick79cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked No61c120.95$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.318644.2%38 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…fde1backed No43c116.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.091050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes23c111$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5344224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes17c110$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.725518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbefc…9408backed No13c99.59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.64425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c9…1ef1backed No40c95$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7770…518dbacked No70c85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed Yes49c81.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6716433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed No55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.735754.4%31 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No57c70.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4726756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes21c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…224dbacked Yes37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.21844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed Yes29c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x676c…ce51backed No56c69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.07560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc639…c5a2backed No75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.674847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db8…ed19backed No42c65.77$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.014751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca5…80f5backed No46c64.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.641838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No33c59.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.974742.6%20 W · 27 L-7.9wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-25.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed No38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3113532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.520131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167136.6%26 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee6f…92d9backed No42c49.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e8…3664backed No41c48.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.431921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No65c47.85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.751250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c94…2e06backed Yes59c44.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55962.7%37 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes47c43.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4715740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No60c38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2433741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes58c37.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.828229.3%24 W · 58 L-12.4wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-50%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0c2c…dce3backed No41c35.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.095658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed Yes30c34.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.296043.3%26 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No60c30.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.132540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes51c25.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd843…a8cfbacked No45c23.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf53a…7970backed Yes62c22.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.861822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-51.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.86159%36 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+34.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82b6…5a2ebacked Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84647.8%22 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc623…3ba8backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83672.2%26 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a43…67dcbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe940…0fc4backed Yes62c16.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick27cpaid-85.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.