Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27712cb667d3e589ae890dd01ccb744c5346741a1361d37025b55ae78bd8d97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 15,753$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 5c | 4,639$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.22 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…aebabacked No | 5c | 4,048$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 15c | 3,598$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 14c | 2,738$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.12 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 10c | 2,722$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.55 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 2,313$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.39 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 3c | 2,231$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 1c | 2,058$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 77c | 1,535$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 1,470$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…74a9backed Yes | 78c | 1,380$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 1,373$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.22 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 8c | 1,269$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 55c | 1,086$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 14c | 976.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.06 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 4c | 899.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 38c | 843.59$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 67c | 832.78$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…937bbacked Yes | 73c | 754.57$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.57 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 746.5$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.51 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 694$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 521.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 8c | 476.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 72c | 416.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 369.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 12c | 360$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 33c | 343.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked No | 19c | 306.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 14c | 295.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2ebebacked Yes | 51c | 294.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 51c | 293.22$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.11 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…5c83backed No | 5c | 291.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked Yes | 77c | 279.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 55c | 275.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 56c | 265.77$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…8688backed No | 11c | 263.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 10c | 259.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 26c | 224.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 20c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…3771backed No | 57c | 196.36$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 12c | 183.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 79c | 179.17$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…c4c9backed Yes | 77c | 168.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed Yes | 42c | 165$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 54c | 163.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…4a1bbacked No | 17c | 142.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…0895backed Yes | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 138.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 43c | 137.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 136.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Yes | 75c | 132.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…e1d4backed Yes | 79c | 127.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 55c | 127.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 121.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes | 78c | 114.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…50e9backed Yes | 51c | 113.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 13c | 102.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…73dabacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 11c | 100.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 25c | 94.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked No | 53c | 93.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x525a…7f07backed Yes | 67c | 92.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 76c | 88.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 12c | 83.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 49c | 69.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 44c | 60.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 45c | 59.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd4…cd45backed No | 19c | 52.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 52c | 47.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…e198backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…6e35backed No | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…d1c6backed Yes | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dd…3d3ebacked No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaf…4c8abacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb219…7f30backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c91…e5adbacked Yes | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…b076backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 21.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 75c | 21.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.