Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1392afa5a8528ed21382736dd808c190019b7d638e619c1f97f0258ada7a2df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 2c | 15,497$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 77c | 6,902$5,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.63 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 5c | 5,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.5 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 43c | 3,194$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.13 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 2,757$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.26 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…3d81backed No | 63c | 2,500$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 15c | 1,680$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.77 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…9408backed No | 4c | 1,500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 51c | 1,479$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.8 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 48c | 1,445$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.17 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…937bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,442$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 6c | 1,432$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 18c | 1,408$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.81 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 1,266$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.84 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 12c | 1,242$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,109$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.92 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…74a9backed Yes | 74c | 1,087$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…4668backed Yes | 10c | 998.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 5c | 854.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 2c | 841.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…a9dabacked No | 25c | 807.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…5487backed No | 68c | 664.74$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 18c | 654.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.79 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 18c | 625.32$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.58 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked Yes | 23c | 560.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 3c | 553.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 545.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.66 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 35c | 524.16$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.58 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 39c | 517.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.96 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 46c | 508.73$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.31 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…7674backed Yes | 74c | 488.04$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 28c | 436.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 411.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 18c | 402.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed No | 69c | 376.24$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 57c | 375.42$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 53c | 361.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 360.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.21 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 30c | 357.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 78c | 350.01$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.23 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed No | 43c | 350$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 11c | 336.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 53c | 309.13$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.77 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 51c | 302.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.57 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 283.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9680…c611backed Yes | 39c | 253.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 60c | 239$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 234.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.51 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…ce4fbacked Yes | 74c | 233.04$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 29c | 222.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.46 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x619d…b31cbacked Yes | 54c | 217.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 41c | 207.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…0b81backed Yes | 75c | 199.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Yes | 62c | 197.42$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 13c | 180.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 60c | 167.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 47cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…72c2backed Yes | 55c | 166.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 34c | 153.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 43c | 148.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes | 58c | 137.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…e1d4backed Yes | 71c | 135.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed Yes | 65c | 135.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994d…e0afbacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdf…a4cabacked Yes | 38c | 132.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…50e9backed Yes | 39c | 129.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 64c | 129.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 126.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…8973backed No | 79c | 126.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…b853backed Yes | 15c | 116.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed No | 26c | 115.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…73dabacked Yes | 44c | 114.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…5eb9backed No | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 37c | 109.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked Yes | 51c | 102.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 28c | 100.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…c994backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 80c | 96.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 95.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496a…d78dbacked Yes | 21c | 93.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 92.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 34c | 84.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 41c | 81.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 23c | 79.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 76.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 32c | 76.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…b19abacked Yes | 22c | 73.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +355.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…1c78backed Yes | 76c | 71.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.