AI · resolved market
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde5f6791fa13105b0902fe244345f1225decf68779f17444ce09953b65533d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $791,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $797,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $791,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 577 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5400…8a89backed No | 1c | 30,729$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 0c | 29,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 3c | 29,143$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…1f26backed No | 1c | 20,500$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…6ba2backed No | 0c | 20,423$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…39fdbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3579…14fcbacked No | 6c | 19,200$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed No | 0c | 16,740$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84f…5c5cbacked No | 0c | 15,025$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed No | 0c | 14,001$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 77c | 10,910$8,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.89 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed No | 3c | 10,792$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…6fc2backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 2c | 9,966$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 70c | 8,500$5,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…db4bbacked No | 52c | 8,486$4,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,445.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 25c | 7,500$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 77c | 7,424$5,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.04 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 7,412$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.87 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 76c | 7,131$5,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…2ecbbacked Yes | 73c | 7,096$5,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…4e41backed No | 52c | 6,793$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb488…1405backed Yes | 71c | 6,710$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4903…a423backed Yes | 51c | 6,114$3,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +156%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1627…c8ecbacked No | 42c | 5,808$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 21c | 5,291$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 29c | 5,246$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…5447backed No | 1c | 5,164$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…042ebacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 74c | 4,239$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.49 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 75c | 4,005$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.59 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…cad9backed Yes | 73c | 3,900$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 47c | 3,750$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 3,670$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.48 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4543…4a20backed No | 21c | 3,343$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dc…d1febacked No | 6c | 3,325$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…55b7backed Yes | 65c | 3,278$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 1c | 3,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 25c | 3,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…cd04backed No | 34c | 2,959$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 46c | 2,802$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.75 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 3c | 2,662$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 4c | 2,654$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…3c88backed No | 32c | 2,601$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 20c | 2,418$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.47 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…9cf1backed No | 29c | 2,278$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 2c | 2,215$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…ff87backed Yes | 52c | 2,212$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 51c | 2,197$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e12…8fe1backed No | 1c | 2,180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…4c0cbacked Yes | 78c | 2,169$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 3c | 2,153$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 15c | 2,095$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.01 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 72c | 2,074$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb7…ae9bbacked No | 48c | 2,068$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…4943backed No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0b…36e5backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…b08dbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…36c1backed No | 11c | 1,931$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 78c | 1,919$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.14 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…cefabacked No | 1c | 1,900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 35c | 1,892$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 76c | 1,879$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 72c | 1,856$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.92 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a64…efd5backed No | 3c | 1,855$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 71c | 1,841$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…1b84backed No | 22c | 1,801$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked No | 50c | 1,800$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…7ba4backed No | 29c | 1,782$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…1651backed No | 49c | 1,754$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…73e8backed No | 17c | 1,751$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a4…c8a2backed Yes | 69c | 1,744$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 74c | 1,700$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.57 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 6c | 1,603$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 3c | 1,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 76c | 1,500$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.99 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…79b2backed Yes | 63c | 1,494$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4f…297fbacked No | 9c | 1,456$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed Yes | 70c | 1,395$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc909…a22fbacked No | 13c | 1,385$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…b420backed Yes | 73c | 1,367$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 55c | 1,351$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 62c | 1,332$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d6…0c2abacked No | 19c | 1,291$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f0…61e1backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…ec6fbacked No | 33c | 1,233$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…fe57backed No | 33c | 1,226$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 2c | 1,222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 70c | 1,203$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.96 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…eb93backed No | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 5c | 1,187$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 29c | 1,183$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 24c | 1,178$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…b8babacked No | 11c | 1,171$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff84…9a02backed No | 26c | 1,169$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?this page
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.