AI · resolved market
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e86930b87a67ec47668db97562b62863e177ed9e8fc9bc6a475e08d155b1cb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $571,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $527,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $571,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd640…480cbacked No | 0c | 86,489$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66a…6b6abacked No | 0c | 72,020$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…6a3dbacked No | 0c | 67,865$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 2c | 30,081$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 0c | 13,951$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…40babacked No | 0c | 11,243$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…6fc2backed No | 0c | 11,073$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 7c | 10,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 7c | 5,000$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.98 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 77c | 4,375$3,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.54 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d6…0c2abacked No | 8c | 3,138$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes | 73c | 2,706$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.39 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…cb4ebacked No | 19c | 2,621$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…cbe7backed No | 19c | 2,579$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 7c | 2,450$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…59bebacked No | 12c | 2,089$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…db70backed No | 27c | 2,072$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 17c | 1,837$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.26 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a1…9d94backed No | 18c | 1,759$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 8c | 1,705$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cd…7f4abacked No | 17c | 1,269$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…5228backed No | 5c | 1,190$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…36c1backed No | 7c | 1,186$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…0de5backed No | 7c | 999.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 26c | 999.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce6…9458backed No | 8c | 879.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…3627backed Yes | 75c | 820.91$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…9cf1backed No | 16c | 815.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa252…dbf4backed Yes | 80c | 803.83$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked No | 15c | 729.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…40d8backed No | 4c | 710.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 8c | 709.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb4…63e4backed No | 11c | 700$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked Yes | 76c | 686.72$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.06 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…6e55backed No | 17c | 665.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 10c | 650.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 19c | 575.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897c…a163backed No | 17c | 561$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 22c | 557.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…0de4backed No | 19c | 534.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…2a15backed No | 12c | 533.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc909…a22fbacked No | 12c | 526.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 36c | 520.43$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…bcb6backed No | 18c | 519.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…4e1cbacked No | 41c | 506.31$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked No | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed No | 20c | 491.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 16c | 475.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…cd0abacked No | 7c | 475.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 12c | 459.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…addabacked No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…7abbbacked No | 28c | 452.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 450.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 14c | 420.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaab…43a7backed No | 14c | 414.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…7e10backed No | 20c | 406.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee6…4ff3backed No | 25c | 405.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…64adbacked Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…7f58backed No | 21c | 399.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…6257backed No | 15c | 365.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 358.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 10c | 331.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 5c | 330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed No | 15c | 325.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…c32dbacked Yes | 43c | 321.79$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 65c | 321.44$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 8c | 307.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Yes | 80c | 301$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcf…0321backed No | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 11c | 275.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 71c | 274.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 75c | 264.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…935cbacked No | 20c | 263.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…87e5backed Yes | 78c | 256.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…c50fbacked No | 13c | 251.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aad…7948backed No | 24c | 251.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…2d12backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…6222backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…d7ecbacked No | 30c | 249.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 74c | 245.28$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 79c | 245.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…2603backed No | 41c | 244.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe557…5faebacked No | 8c | 240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…6e45backed No | 13c | 220$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…86b1backed No | 24c | 205.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 11c | 205.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…53f9backed Yes | 76c | 204.1$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…b46dbacked No | 5c | 198.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…541dbacked No | 15c | 197$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c92…a524backed No | 25c | 192$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd943…e1d4backed No | 53c | 188.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed No | 30c | 180.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?this page
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.