AI · resolved market
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c81a38565e4d228c231acf8d7081202806728d31989fe649d9a7762fb4101a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 0c | 15,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 0c | 6,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…cb4ebacked No | 39c | 5,380$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 50c | 4,661$2,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.77 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…7778backed No | 11c | 4,111$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 40c | 3,480$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.94 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 28c | 2,279$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.51 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 11c | 2,035$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4452…7ae7backed No | 43c | 1,922$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 4c | 1,689$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 31c | 1,685$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.71 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…2ecbbacked Yes | 79c | 1,255$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.06 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…6fe2backed No | 14c | 709.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…ad5bbacked No | 5c | 643.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39f…690cbacked No | 16c | 637.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 35c | 619.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.04 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 596.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 14c | 441.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…370dbacked Yes | 73c | 419.49$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…569cbacked No | 47c | 414$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 400$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked No | 13c | 399.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked No | 10c | 386.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…a9efbacked No | 12c | 377.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…060cbacked Yes | 36c | 363.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 297.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked Yes | 26c | 297.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…5affbacked No | 18c | 279.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe557…5faebacked No | 8c | 262.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…935cbacked No | 17c | 245.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd943…e1d4backed No | 20c | 215.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 69c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c92…a524backed No | 19c | 188.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed No | 12c | 169.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 52c | 167.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…dfcfbacked No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked No | 72c | 150$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 74c | 135.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…86b1backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…6c0fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x704d…aceebacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…ab1bbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…3af9backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 59c | 97.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1671…2f6dbacked No | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aad…7948backed No | 22c | 92.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed No | 21c | 87.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked Yes | 42c | 70.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…64adbacked Yes | 33c | 70.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…e488backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed No | 68c | 68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…ed25backed No | 18c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…ea7fbacked Yes | 36c | 54.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…999bbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…17d6backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 80c | 45.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…12f2backed No | 61c | 43.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…3bedbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 62c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…4dfebacked No | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…4aeebacked No | 67c | 23.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 68c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?this page
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.