AI · resolved market
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5ed42ed30993fde9fccbe7f5adb15971d3a34c75ee45ac72f1ff5d70b859723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $617,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $580,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $617,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 413 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 42c | 46,515$19,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,819.51 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 70c | 34,211$24,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,000 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 17,323$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…4c0cbacked Yes | 36c | 16,251$5,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,436.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5a…6a4ebacked Yes | 12c | 14,204$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,567.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +767.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 8c | 11,836$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,860.36 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…2ecbbacked Yes | 43c | 11,470$4,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,591.94 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…7609backed No | 0c | 11,410$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 43c | 11,208$4,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,776.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…ee56backed No | 75c | 10,121$7,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,548.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…0a45backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 32c | 9,904$3,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,194.27 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed No | 3c | 9,033$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…1591backed Yes | 12c | 8,575$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,574.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +502.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked No | 3c | 8,327$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.98 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…c32dbacked Yes | 40c | 7,883$3,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,730.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…ff87backed Yes | 13c | 7,624$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,657.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 14c | 7,126$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,106.17 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81aa…c075backed No | 73c | 7,034$5,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,165.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed No | 5c | 6,569$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 72c | 6,535$4,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,711.6 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 28c | 5,657$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,086.49 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 13c | 5,460$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.78 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…f1d6backed No | 9c | 5,435$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…716bbacked No | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 4,907$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 31c | 4,775$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,275.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,547$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 8c | 4,400$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 34c | 4,150$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.46 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 11c | 4,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,570.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b1…36dbbacked No | 69c | 3,843$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked Yes | 34c | 3,464$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.09 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ab…76fdbacked Yes | 40c | 3,382$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 8c | 3,200$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +111%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 3,153$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.24 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…db4bbacked No | 64c | 3,135$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c5ebbacked No | 75c | 3,085$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab16…5cdfbacked Yes | 47c | 2,848$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 7c | 2,791$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52db…3e30backed Yes | 33c | 2,776$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…821fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,729$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 2,610$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.4 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd380…1b19backed Yes | 42c | 2,548$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d50…713dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,375$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +247%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…dfdabacked No | 8c | 2,153$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…b877backed Yes | 19c | 2,137$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +433%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Yes | 29c | 2,076$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…5133backed Yes | 12c | 2,075$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +398.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…cb4ebacked No | 9c | 1,985$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 1,965$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.74 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 7c | 1,952$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked No | 64c | 1,878$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…9d22backed Yes | 15c | 1,799$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 20cpaid | +280.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 46c | 1,788$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,575$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.83 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 7c | 1,516$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 73c | 1,499$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 27cpaid | +226%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…5affbacked No | 65c | 1,489$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…6f93backed Yes | 48c | 1,443$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 4c | 1,442$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,429$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 39c | 1,424$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.35 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…3627backed Yes | 18c | 1,412$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.05 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 27c | 1,400$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 65c | 1,384$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.98 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…d6e7backed No | 8c | 1,359$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 68c | 1,343$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 57c | 1,329$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9012…8c5bbacked No | 1c | 1,279$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 58c | 1,250$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…c27cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +501.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 56c | 1,146$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.58 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 18c | 1,125$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…2edfbacked No | 60c | 1,107$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…c0d5backed Yes | 48c | 1,033$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed No | 41c | 1,018$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 49c | 1,000$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 55c | 1,000$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.5 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked Yes | 55c | 999.99$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed No | 68c | 999.98$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…0b8dbacked No | 63c | 990.86$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608e…450dbacked No | 64c | 990.46$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 42c | 981.66$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 48c | 978.5$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.15 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…329abacked Yes | 38c | 960$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed No | 67c | 944.87$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.07 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 56c | 939$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.44 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e9…ea02backed Yes | 23c | 889.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +341.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…73e8backed No | 11c | 885.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b0…5b25backed Yes | 36c | 851.14$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc8…7674backed No | 8c | 805.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 802.18$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.76 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cf…1901backed No | 64c | 779.44$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 12c | 770$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 9c | 760.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.37 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 750$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 41c | 712.52$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 712.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?this page
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.