AI · resolved market
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfd48c874ae1760c1ec3c87a8c46c221af6a4f2be3b56618ba261bef4c92e768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $605,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $598,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $605,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 728 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 76c | 42,533$32,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,012.32 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 39c | 24,945$9,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,758.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 21,339$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…6a3dbacked No | 0c | 17,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 28c | 16,838$4,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,194.42 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 14,720$8,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,790.29 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 29c | 12,258$3,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,509.68 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 65c | 11,296$7,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,301.89 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 11,231$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…716bbacked No | 9c | 10,667$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…8ba1backed No | 2c | 9,229$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…0a45backed No | 17c | 7,100$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked No | 72c | 6,903$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.35 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…2d20backed No | 69c | 6,878$4,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,725.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 41c | 6,346$2,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,770.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 8c | 6,277$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.28 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 27c | 5,332$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,896.66 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 16c | 5,280$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.43 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…4c0cbacked Yes | 53c | 5,153$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…a144backed No | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…9d22backed Yes | 32c | 4,879$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 20cpaid | +280.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 42c | 4,758$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…16e3backed Yes | 40c | 4,725$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,843.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…5133backed Yes | 40c | 4,714$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +398.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 70c | 4,600$3,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81aa…c075backed No | 76c | 3,971$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 18c | 3,833$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.55 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 40c | 3,794$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…54cabacked Yes | 58c | 3,756$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.9 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 65c | 3,639$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 21c | 3,398$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,694.27 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 76c | 3,328$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.62 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…d7a5backed No | 58c | 3,300$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…cefabacked Yes | 30c | 3,274$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…e636backed Yes | 35c | 3,107$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked Yes | 54c | 3,094$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…0e8bbacked No | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…74fcbacked No | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +111%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…3627backed Yes | 60c | 2,622$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 63c | 2,600$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.15 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed Yes | 30c | 2,301$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.88 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 62c | 2,260$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…5c11backed No | 38c | 2,221$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 31c | 2,204$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.1 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…d10cbacked No | 19c | 2,144$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 74c | 2,120$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.99 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…afd4backed No | 70c | 2,025$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 23c | 2,018$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.34 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 79c | 2,016$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.4 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…c32dbacked Yes | 71c | 2,012$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 55c | 1,973$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.82 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 72c | 1,915$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 33c | 1,900$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 60c | 1,848$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.37 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 60c | 1,807$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed No | 6c | 1,806$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 28c | 1,800$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed No | 6c | 1,786$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 34c | 1,768$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.06 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 73c | 1,708$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 1,694$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.51 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c5ebbacked Yes | 63c | 1,689$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…6954backed No | 74c | 1,681$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 43c | 1,660$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 61c | 1,650$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.49 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 74c | 1,649$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.68 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb32…bbccbacked No | 42c | 1,648$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 73c | 1,615$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.84 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,601$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.87 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…c185backed No | 78c | 1,559$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 70c | 1,547$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 69c | 1,518$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 55c | 1,516$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 65c | 1,475$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,442$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.84 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…f24fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,400$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 64c | 1,390$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.83 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 25c | 1,273$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 37c | 1,265$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.55 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed No | 64c | 1,261$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 48c | 1,236$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.49 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 62c | 1,225$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.33 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 34c | 1,219$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.13 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,200$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…8e0ebacked No | 74c | 1,180$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 72c | 1,177$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c0…60c5backed Yes | 36c | 1,162$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes | 75c | 1,161$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,134$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad8…8635backed Yes | 31c | 1,132$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 58c | 1,129$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.3 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…743abacked Yes | 43c | 1,125$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,113$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +252.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…15a1backed No | 61c | 1,093$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,084$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.02 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed No | 67c | 1,060$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.68 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 20c | 1,029$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.23 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 1,007$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.36 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.