Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43da1a4811bf364b4ac144ed5d52b274d0873ac256bb2cb82eeba3256f29ba62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 0c | 13,177$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 71c | 1,684$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 67c | 1,352$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 30c | 1,143$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.79 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 49c | 1,084$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.39 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 898.13$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 829.11$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 755.04$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 31c | 735.38$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.14 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 646.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 515.13$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 48c | 500.46$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.42 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 392$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 4c | 391.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 17c | 388.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 79c | 382.09$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 67c | 373.2$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 41c | 354.18$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.94 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 352.3$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 60c | 351.8$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…c2d0backed No | 61c | 309.97$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 62c | 289.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 48c | 289.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 45c | 260.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.13 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 249.67$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 61c | 248.21$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.37 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 243.36$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 17c | 233$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.07 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 41c | 225.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 206.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…af94backed No | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 33c | 199.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 55c | 199.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 78c | 187.8$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 6c | 173.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 77c | 173.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 172$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 52c | 171.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 168.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 55c | 158.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 62c | 153.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 36c | 151.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 26c | 151.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 69c | 142.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 49c | 141.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 140.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 36c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 128.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 43c | 118.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 28c | 106.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 39c | 104.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 104.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…2ed0backed No | 42c | 101.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 57c | 99.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 97.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 35c | 96.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…9096backed No | 50c | 95.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 33c | 91.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 53c | 88.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 43c | 88.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 85.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed No | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed No | 53c | 83.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…c53dbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 82.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa127…4e1fbacked No | 41c | 81.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked No | 64c | 81.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 42c | 81.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 48c | 81.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…9b51backed Yes | 52c | 80.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 42c | 80.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 79.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 78.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 76.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 51c | 73.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed No | 63c | 73.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 62c | 73.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 42c | 71.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 39c | 70.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 35c | 69.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 35c | 69.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 43c | 67.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…04a1backed Yes | 74c | 67.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 62c | 64.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 48c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 41c | 61.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 60.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.