Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94bcb471b5075af0a1703ecb4fa974d32568844524a8182cb5c14e25e36fd7e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 0c | 4,828$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 60c | 1,501$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 32c | 1,071$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.12 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 680$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 38c | 676.42$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.36 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 37c | 660.35$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 32c | 488.22$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 60c | 362.26$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 352.3$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 332.71$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.11 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 303.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 299.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 38c | 287.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 10c | 251.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 236.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 225.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 16c | 216.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 29c | 214.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 212.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 206.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…6508backed No | 78c | 203.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 189.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 37c | 182.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 176$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 25c | 172.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 66c | 164$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 153$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 151.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 67c | 146.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 36c | 145.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 144.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 139.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 11c | 137.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…9dedbacked Yes | 37c | 134.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 130.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 26c | 129.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 126.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 76c | 121.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 118.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 116.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 77c | 115$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 112.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 110.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 110.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 109.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 26c | 99.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 12c | 95.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 49c | 95.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 94.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 75c | 93.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 12c | 90.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…2ed0backed No | 70c | 81.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 31c | 80.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 79.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 28c | 75.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 72.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa127…4e1fbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 40c | 67.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 44c | 66.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 64.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 30c | 62.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 60.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 48c | 60.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 54.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 39c | 51.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 76c | 50.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…e686backed Yes | 43c | 46.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb40…68b6backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 69c | 39.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 34.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 33.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 41c | 30.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.