Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b1e14394a7b9f52d9fe1bddf4f7397a4f129b5617b8f5bfb7da754b413fb460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2947…9dedbacked Yes | 2c | 2,104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,732$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.96 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,153$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 29c | 615.58$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 600.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 25c | 510.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 454.6$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 31c | 440.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 18c | 426.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 409.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 12c | 402.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 78c | 377.95$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 288.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 285$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 26c | 272.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 250.7$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 29c | 247.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 17c | 229.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 214.77$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 205.79$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 15c | 200.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 199$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…8062backed Yes | 18c | 198.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 191.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 29c | 186.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 185.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 174.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 25c | 151.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 79c | 150.55$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 21c | 148.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 148.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 146.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 14c | 140.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 140.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 19c | 140.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 22c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 18c | 136.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 29c | 131.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 127.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 117.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 115.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 80c | 113.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…4db6backed Yes | 23c | 108.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 106.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 21c | 101.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 12c | 97.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 14c | 97.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 27c | 93.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 17c | 89.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 81.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 13c | 79.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 33c | 78.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 40c | 74.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 70.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 70.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 40c | 69.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 66.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 65.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 64.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 33c | 52.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 50.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…c53dbacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 36c | 49.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 60c | 41.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 40.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 29c | 35.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 45c | 32.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…af94backed No | 76c | 26.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed No | 80c | 22.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…8454backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 67c | 19.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked No | 69c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 78c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.