Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x087f81c416ba8ef0e8b45a5dd4c2f1292b2f3c3c54bba01637d687d532642973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,192$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.35 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,090$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 38c | 1,048$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.95 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 17c | 807.54$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 775.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 35c | 721.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.39 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 648.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 9c | 560.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 550$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3a…6437backed Yes | 29c | 530.59$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 3c | 515.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 496$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 21c | 455.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 425.49$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 62c | 337.3$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 305.93$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 275.7$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 272.77$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 271.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 37c | 267.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 267$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 228.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 46c | 218.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 18c | 201.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 189.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 33c | 175.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 24c | 174.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 166.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 67c | 150.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 148.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 78c | 146.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 144.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 33c | 143.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 141.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 131.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 127.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 37c | 126.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 14c | 124.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 73c | 124.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 32c | 119.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 13c | 118$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 113.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 30c | 113.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 34c | 111.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…abc0backed Yes | 13c | 111.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 26c | 107.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 106.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 102.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…3e1cbacked No | 74c | 96.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed No | 74c | 93.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 92.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 15c | 88.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 33c | 87.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 85.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 80.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 16c | 79.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 33c | 75.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 74.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 31c | 71.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 33c | 71.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 65.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 27c | 64.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed No | 80c | 62.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 28c | 62.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 32c | 62.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 58.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 55.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…7bb8backed Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 63c | 49.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 31c | 47.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 47.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…4db6backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 73c | 42.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.