Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1217b28adfa7369582ed55bd95d01625862e6d5c00a24653ab209e4de047f931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf25b…9ccabacked No | 1c | 12,868$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 0c | 2,991$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 8c | 1,749$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 2c | 1,346$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 22c | 1,198$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 1c | 1,136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 58c | 905.09$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.37 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 71c | 890.67$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.62 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…3d8cbacked No | 2c | 815.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 38c | 762.16$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.41 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 734.96$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 627.61$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 33c | 521.52$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 496$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 55c | 489.26$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.01 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 47c | 480.1$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.55 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 479.37$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 400$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 54c | 359.39$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.51 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 63c | 313.72$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 312$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…c2d0backed No | 63c | 299.96$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 294$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 275.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 73c | 259.2$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 252.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 234.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 40c | 231.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 15c | 229.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 47c | 226.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 225.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 45c | 184.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 183$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 180.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…52c6backed Yes | 68c | 178.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 62c | 168.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 162.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…29acbacked Yes | 51c | 155.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 38c | 155.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 155.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 53c | 148.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 71c | 139.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 130.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…9dedbacked Yes | 38c | 130.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 127.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked No | 34c | 126$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 46c | 121.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 114.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 113.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 59c | 108.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 101.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 33c | 94.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 34c | 86.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 58c | 86.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 83.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 56c | 79.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 54c | 76.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…c53dbacked Yes | 43c | 75.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 42c | 71.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 35c | 70.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 39c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 55c | 69.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 71c | 69.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 36c | 69.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 68.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 65.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 76c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 36c | 62.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 62.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 61.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 33c | 58.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 51.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 30c | 50.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 37c | 49.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…e686backed Yes | 41c | 49.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 58c | 43.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 40c | 42.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 28c | 42.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.