Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x050e0ce4ff546ac324c759f7f09c1af6fd6ee53b67645401081d7769993ecb25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 63c | 361.53$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.58 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 22c | 287.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 23c | 194$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.18 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 36c | 167.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 54c | 158.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 155$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7119backed Yes | 75c | 133.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 24c | 51.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…f88ebacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 78c | 32.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 76c | 22.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…e987backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…e8f7backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 73c | 16.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?this page
- Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.