Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe73d709bea8b5825544a8a5376f5c915ce6a6af8db41153ad85eed478ea3e39a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 26c | 902.59$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.31 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 360.06$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.25 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 207$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 21c | 184.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.06 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 116.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 20c | 109$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed No | 59c | 76.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…44e5backed Yes | 22c | 65.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 56.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 50.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 75cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…cc69backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 75c | 18.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?this page
- Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.