TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x237b…cdecbacked Yes65c18,650$12,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,453.912070%14 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b0…0822backed Yes23c4,272$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.161994.7%18 W · 1 L+5.6wins+0.30per pick65cpaid+64.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No48c3,547$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.6710339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No29c3,506$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.224238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c86…d8d6backed No35c2,506$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No34c2,279$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.411924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes18c1,756$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.4848236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c1,369$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.257537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Yes20c1,364$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.8411637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c1,347$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.968442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes9c1,236$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.722810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid+38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c992.09$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.2216737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No54c967.65$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.688225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No29c947.38$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.273040%12 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Yes16c871.2$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.613129%9 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No38c775.95$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5311240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No33c694.69$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.073046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No32c600.17$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19410436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes19c563.37$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.61956.3%6 W · 89 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-79%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes14c508.95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.432686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No29c508.22$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7610139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No37c504.44$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.923557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No31c503.88$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.183444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes10c400$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.826641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No55c376.92$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.663158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed No49c343.84$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes29c343.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.3611129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes25c339.78$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.4710042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No71c307.11$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No68c304.03$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1922030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c282.23$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.111,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No63c278.46$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1914240.1%57 W · 85 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…d526backed Yes55c275.82$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes10c268$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.824634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked No71c240.26$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.647222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c234.17$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.259951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No13c230.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-78.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No68c220.45$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.63250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No28c195.62$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.295339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb93f…9a79backed No44c193.1$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.592927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No72c193$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.171827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf8bb…4282backed Yes30c192$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.281741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ad…6a6bbacked Yes47c184.78$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.96771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+39.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e9…5250backed Yes23c168$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6714037.1%52 W · 88 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c167$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5312442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No49c164.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.324843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb82…0318backed Yes63c149.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.56100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No67c149.7$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.961,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No65c148.55$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.693542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No44c143$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.395147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No32c141.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.433246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No64c135.47$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.042962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No65c135$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.946855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No74c127.33$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6219440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No68c124.44$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.133545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0708…f218backed Yes10c111.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+368.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No55c110$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.563647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes25c104.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes64c100.32$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.481566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92c4…4682backed No70c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes17c79.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.041822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No14c70.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No16c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.994544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No20c69.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.061735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c81…8f47backed No36c68.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No28c65.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.524037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No72c65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.535234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No34c64.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No30c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.452462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes60c46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No71c44.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.711776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb80b…b047backed Yes61c44.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+113.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No47c42.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+92.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…2e11backed No35c40.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.164748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No30c37.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3e…df5dbacked No68c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad8…dbebbacked No61c34.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No72c34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4311184.7%94 W · 17 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf33…1e17backed No38c34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+50.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.36642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.213959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.584252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No72c24.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c30…d8abbacked No76c17.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes69c15.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a0…e45ebacked No75c14.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed No74c13.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.072572%18 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.