Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88e812beb27442554b9231273f6cdda7c96022afc1a5b2a841f03c17dbceaaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,787,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,055,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,787,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 2c | 689,328$10,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,432.16 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…3118backed No | 0c | 383,515$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 0c | 361,893$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.89 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…db70backed No | 0c | 233,767$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.77 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed No | 0c | 201,000$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +221.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ce…271dbacked No | 0c | 192,171$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…8875backed No | 0c | 166,889$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 0c | 136,879$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.64 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +79%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c7…31ccbacked No | 0c | 128,050$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 1c | 119,513$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.41 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed No | 2c | 112,433$2,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…4acebacked No | 0c | 108,333$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…8f75backed No | 0c | 102,700$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked No | 1c | 100,000$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…19b8backed No | 0c | 97,250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 63c | 93,628$59,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,311.14 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 2c | 85,188$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.76 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…8decbacked No | 0c | 85,097$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 71,617$46,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,458.88 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 3c | 70,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…acefbacked Yes | 58c | 69,507$40,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,489.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 12c | 66,475$8,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,305.85 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…b04bbacked No | 0c | 65,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…8309backed Yes | 71c | 64,343$45,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,647.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…399cbacked No | 0c | 63,634$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a9…9e97backed No | 0c | 62,715$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 36c | 62,214$22,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,292.11 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed No | 1c | 56,000$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 59c | 55,371$32,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,572.9 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…0f2bbacked No | 0c | 55,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 34c | 53,075$18,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,036.85 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…6a3dbacked No | 0c | 52,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 0c | 50,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 1c | 49,940$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.93 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 7c | 48,929$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.75 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 42c | 47,930$20,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,178.41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…c153backed No | 0c | 47,301$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5600…2c0abacked No | 0c | 47,008$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 51c | 45,451$23,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,057.6 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…b31cbacked No | 0c | 44,950$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 40c | 39,482$15,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,571.67 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed No | 0c | 38,726$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…00d0backed No | 0c | 38,498$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…a3c0backed No | 0c | 35,833$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 36c | 35,712$12,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,987.14 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked No | 0c | 35,487$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…4dafbacked No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 0c | 34,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 1c | 33,202$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed No | 0c | 32,360$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…1d77backed No | 0c | 31,900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…9895backed No | 0c | 31,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 69c | 31,134$21,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,537.95 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…03b8backed No | 0c | 31,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 43c | 30,994$13,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,406.32 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc7…95e6backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…a64abacked No | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…631ebacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 47c | 30,000$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,999.98 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 26c | 29,320$7,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,534.52 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed No | 1c | 29,247$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.53 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 19c | 28,839$5,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,385.92 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 20c | 27,614$5,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,596.27 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 52c | 26,916$14,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,096.4 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked No | 22c | 26,888$5,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,889.14 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…d0d1backed No | 0c | 26,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +1,479.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 26,426$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.97 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…a676backed No | 1c | 25,339$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.93 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3a…ccc9backed No | 0c | 25,250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 71c | 25,046$17,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,385.17 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…54adbacked No | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 1c | 24,980$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.94 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 37c | 24,432$9,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,077.8 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5882…55a2backed No | 33c | 24,330$8,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,017.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 37c | 24,163$8,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,873.5 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…55debacked No | 0c | 24,128$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 20c | 23,922$4,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,747.24 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…ae4fbacked No | 0c | 22,990$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +778.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…7f4cbacked No | 0c | 22,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 19c | 22,334$4,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,233.46 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 79c | 21,889$17,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,568.58 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 42c | 20,949$8,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,903 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343e…50b3backed No | 0c | 20,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed No | 0c | 20,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…cbb2backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…08e2backed No | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…af89backed No | 0c | 20,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -7.4wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 1c | 19,900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 61c | 18,866$11,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,426.47 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 13c | 18,588$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,390.28 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 9c | 17,848$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,213.92 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 15c | 17,617$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,579.57 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed No | 0c | 16,970$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…e946backed No | 3c | 15,241$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 59c | 15,220$9,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,216.56 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked No | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…b0a7backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.