Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc56504d54431ca3e17a4b94e24025d842ef3d0bdd6f41a9c1c3147a530f885c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 1,200$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 1,066$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.63 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 23c | 1,027$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 75c | 621.93$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.26 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 4c | 496$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…5583backed No | 18c | 473.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…31adbacked No | 22c | 464.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 16c | 407.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 393.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 78c | 319.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 9c | 300.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 73c | 290$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 207$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 19c | 174.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 172$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 63c | 158.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 10c | 127.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 10c | 120.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 119.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 24c | 110.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 65c | 108.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes | 77c | 104.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 73c | 100.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 73c | 99.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 76c | 98.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 76c | 95.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…4da6backed Yes | 54c | 92.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 79c | 85.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 80.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…6901backed Yes | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ad…28cbbacked Yes | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed Yes | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked Yes | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…1980backed Yes | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c296backed Yes | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 36c | 57.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fb…f5d4backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb02c…ced9backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…b9eabacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…86d9backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed Yes | 77c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed No | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 73c | 33.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 71c | 29.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…58ecbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 45c | 27.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a86…fa12backed Yes | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8c…028abacked Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 71c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9457…2733backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.