Commodities · resolved market
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef5d98a838a227eeba08607b99d88febf2262c204d0e18911bbbcca14b7e95f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45fb…f1f6backed Yes | 6c | 6,857$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,392$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 3,058$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.73 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 7c | 1,502$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 1c | 850.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 9c | 290$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…cfd0backed Yes | 7c | 283.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…69e7backed Yes | 4c | 280.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 10c | 271.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 9c | 234.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked Yes | 7c | 204.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 187$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 6c | 181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 7c | 177$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 149.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 12c | 105.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?Yes won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.