Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d906f5ebad2ba2f4ce69973052c4d31bf44cbabb94ac93ce116d6807208fd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…0391backed Yes | 17c | 1,496$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed Yes | 11c | 1,411$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,303$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 11c | 907.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 22c | 893.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 11c | 739.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 11c | 730.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 13c | 529.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…e999backed Yes | 31c | 478.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 330.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 15c | 290$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 256.62$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 17c | 210.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 207$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 15c | 187.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 69c | 148.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…4da6backed Yes | 22c | 139.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 119.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 11c | 107.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 96.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 13c | 80.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…ddf8backed No | 59c | 53.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…e29fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 65c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?Yes won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.