TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,324,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,050,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,324,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 12,218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes29c523,675$151,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372,137.637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes39c410,420$161,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248,904.2435631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes37c322,649$118,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204,286.9516638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes56c300,695$167,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,490.745536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…a568backed No68c287,205$195,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195,725.1640%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes42c197,483$83,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,638.6713850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d8…a786backed No65c192,467$124,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124,184.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x334b…d971backed No67c177,650$119,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,671.6630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a16…33dbbacked No65c144,970$93,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93,856771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes57c142,291$81,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,284.8416553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes36c140,683$50,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,476.18247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ebf…5bfabacked No36c124,968$45,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,322.045135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes51c120,855$62,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,694.3720438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes53c111,150$58,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,277.9448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked No47c110,934$52,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,406.317032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes35c104,027$36,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,605.7442818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes44c101,132$44,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,482.3720336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes30c95,180$28,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,603.66238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes43c86,991$37,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,812.416831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes42c85,060$35,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,624.9817737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca3…590fbacked No67c79,583$52,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,946.51050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked No51c78,408$39,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,6586349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7637…ffcdbacked Yes33c77,493$25,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,709.68837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+86.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No43c75,540$32,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,544.586532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes38c73,892$27,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,128.698633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No0c70,000$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3352722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes60c63,376$37,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,377.154665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No65c62,814$40,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,823.755238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa65c…7997backed Yes37c58,903$21,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,961.14450%22 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c56,828$23,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,220.2764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4712…29ddbacked Yes35c55,507$19,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,279.931573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.24per pick50cpaid+40.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes37c55,336$20,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,004.7924149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b5…0c5cbacked No70c55,064$38,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,39920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa771…42d1backed No62c53,674$33,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,1712766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+47.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes32c52,476$16,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,541.7336227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c4…8ce2backed Yes32c52,338$16,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,363.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+96.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No54c51,131$27,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,760.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50350%0 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d5…0a45backed No3c49,100$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes36c47,937$17,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,805.411334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e64…9b93backed No9c46,648$4,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,252.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+93.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes34c46,295$15,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,756.7816526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No63c45,549$28,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,771.4735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31bd…2649backed No29c45,327$13,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,063.6540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes29c44,114$12,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,419.5813738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc902…cd14backed Yes41c42,728$17,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,204.074148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed49…8783backed No58c40,552$23,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,368666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes44c40,047$17,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,616.8419639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes35c38,461$13,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,839.3928734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes34c38,088$12,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,128.921521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No45c37,128$16,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,790.6935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes32c36,204$11,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,553.7814228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes63c35,593$22,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,992.6811038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes35c34,781$12,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,653.443735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9215…9c92backed No13c34,724$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,508.0930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No42c34,051$14,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,272.6715541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes38c33,929$13,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,897.186752.2%35 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7633…312ebacked No77c33,426$25,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,697850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3968…2b0fbacked Yes46c32,843$15,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,743.932142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes40c32,571$12,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,630.5228427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed No1c32,009$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.09922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes34c31,191$10,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,431.385642.9%24 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes21c30,064$6,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,695.5110335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes31c29,993$9,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,827.213650%68 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3edb…7c3cbacked No1c29,327$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed No64c29,031$18,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,632922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No74c27,824$20,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,579.722653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed No68c27,537$18,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,814.151560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5287…3a16backed Yes21c27,195$5,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,411.151492.9%13 W · 1 L+8.1wins+0.58per pick35cpaid+209.2%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes65c26,844$17,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,264.1611545.2%52 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No61c26,186$15,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,877.975745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes25c25,992$6,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,496.058719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2363…454cbacked Yes32c25,750$8,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,637.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+125.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…ef25backed No68c25,745$17,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,553.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…17bdbacked No73c25,366$18,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,494.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c5…034dbacked No65c25,360$16,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,596.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked No56c25,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes73c25,000$18,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7502250%11 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No0c24,067$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cc…feb0backed No9c23,292$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0232045%9 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+189.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c23,250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.582742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd286…2322backed Yes42c23,045$9,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,302.361533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes45c22,902$10,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,657.5816650%83 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes47c22,325$10,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,788.8838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes70c22,221$15,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,680.0810928.4%31 W · 78 L-15.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes36c22,180$8,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,108.4612341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes36c21,747$7,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,867.573354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No39c21,663$8,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,411.765749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes34c21,582$7,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,296.2345843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes38c21,468$8,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,397.9831649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes48c21,300$10,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,043.7917530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No69c21,034$14,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,523.272437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x407d…1baebacked Yes22c20,061$4,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,577.954551.1%23 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed No68c20,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,6002166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3660…7810backed No64c20,000$12,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,868.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes36c19,899$7,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,802.046026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes30c19,763$5,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,820.111450%7 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+46%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes28c19,450$5,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,061.9315230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes43c19,281$8,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,984.0312152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe472…e7ebbacked No73c19,027$13,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,972.26459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.