Middle East · resolved market
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,324,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,050,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,324,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 12,218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 29c | 523,675$151,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372,137.6 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 39c | 410,420$161,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248,904.24 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 37c | 322,649$118,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204,286.95 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 56c | 300,695$167,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133,490.74 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…a568backed No | 68c | 287,205$195,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195,725.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 42c | 197,483$83,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113,638.67 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d8…a786backed No | 65c | 192,467$124,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124,184.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d971backed No | 67c | 177,650$119,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119,671.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…33dbbacked No | 65c | 144,970$93,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93,856 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 57c | 142,291$81,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,284.84 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 36c | 140,683$50,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90,476.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked No | 36c | 124,968$45,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,322.04 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 51c | 120,855$62,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,694.37 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 53c | 111,150$58,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,277.94 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 47c | 110,934$52,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,406.31 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 35c | 104,027$36,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,605.74 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 44c | 101,132$44,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,482.37 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 30c | 95,180$28,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,603.6 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 43c | 86,991$37,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,812.4 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 42c | 85,060$35,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,624.98 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca3…590fbacked No | 67c | 79,583$52,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,946.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 51c | 78,408$39,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,658 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…ffcdbacked Yes | 33c | 77,493$25,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,709.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 43c | 75,540$32,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,544.58 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 38c | 73,892$27,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,128.69 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 0c | 70,000$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 60c | 63,376$37,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,377.15 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 65c | 62,814$40,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,823.75 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 37c | 58,903$21,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,961.1 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 56,828$23,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,220.27 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…29ddbacked Yes | 35c | 55,507$19,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,279.93 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 37c | 55,336$20,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,004.79 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…0c5cbacked No | 70c | 55,064$38,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,399 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…42d1backed No | 62c | 53,674$33,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,171 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 32c | 52,476$16,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,541.73 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…8ce2backed Yes | 32c | 52,338$16,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,363.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 54c | 51,131$27,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,760.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…0a45backed No | 3c | 49,100$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 36c | 47,937$17,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,805.4 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…9b93backed No | 9c | 46,648$4,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,252.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 34c | 46,295$15,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,756.78 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 63c | 45,549$28,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,771.47 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…2649backed No | 29c | 45,327$13,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,063.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 29c | 44,114$12,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,419.58 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 41c | 42,728$17,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,204.07 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…8783backed No | 58c | 40,552$23,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,368 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 44c | 40,047$17,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,616.84 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 35c | 38,461$13,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,839.39 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 34c | 38,088$12,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,128.9 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 45c | 37,128$16,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,790.69 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 32c | 36,204$11,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,553.78 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 63c | 35,593$22,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,992.68 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 35c | 34,781$12,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,653.44 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9215…9c92backed No | 13c | 34,724$4,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,508.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 42c | 34,051$14,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,272.67 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 38c | 33,929$13,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,897.18 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…312ebacked No | 77c | 33,426$25,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,697 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…2b0fbacked Yes | 46c | 32,843$15,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,743.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 40c | 32,571$12,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,630.52 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed No | 1c | 32,009$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 34c | 31,191$10,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,431.38 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 21c | 30,064$6,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,695.51 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 31c | 29,993$9,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,827.2 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…7c3cbacked No | 1c | 29,327$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed No | 64c | 29,031$18,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,632 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 74c | 27,824$20,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,579.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 68c | 27,537$18,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,814.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed Yes | 21c | 27,195$5,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,411.15 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.1wins | +0.58per pick | 35cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 65c | 26,844$17,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,264.16 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 61c | 26,186$15,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,877.97 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 25c | 25,992$6,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,496.05 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…454cbacked Yes | 32c | 25,750$8,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,637.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…ef25backed No | 68c | 25,745$17,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,553.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…17bdbacked No | 73c | 25,366$18,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,494.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…034dbacked No | 65c | 25,360$16,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,596.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 56c | 25,000$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 73c | 25,000$18,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 0c | 24,067$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed No | 9c | 23,292$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 23,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 42c | 23,045$9,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,302.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 45c | 22,902$10,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,657.58 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 47c | 22,325$10,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,788.88 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 70c | 22,221$15,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,680.08 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 36c | 22,180$8,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,108.46 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes | 36c | 21,747$7,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,867.57 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 39c | 21,663$8,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,411.76 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 34c | 21,582$7,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,296.23 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 38c | 21,468$8,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,397.98 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 48c | 21,300$10,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,043.79 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 69c | 21,034$14,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,523.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 22c | 20,061$4,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,577.95 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed No | 68c | 20,000$13,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,600 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3660…7810backed No | 64c | 20,000$12,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,868.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 36c | 19,899$7,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,802.04 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 30c | 19,763$5,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,820.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +46%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 28c | 19,450$5,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,061.93 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 43c | 19,281$8,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,984.03 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked No | 73c | 19,027$13,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,972.2 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.