Middle East · resolved market
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,310,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,548,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,310,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 760 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 2c | 496,807$7,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,954.81 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 0c | 317,344$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed Yes | 0c | 109,209$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 0c | 94,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 1c | 77,482$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…463bbacked Yes | 4c | 59,115$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 36c | 53,948$19,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,373.65 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 72c | 53,699$38,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,830.26 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 4c | 52,627$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 20c | 35,911$7,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,183.41 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…fd25backed Yes | 0c | 25,015$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 24c | 21,022$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 39c | 20,979$8,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,749.5 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971d…19bcbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bc…c59abacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,386$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.77 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 3c | 17,924$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.14 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…0541backed Yes | 2c | 17,642$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 79c | 17,558$13,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,764.91 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed Yes | 14c | 17,106$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 78c | 16,860$13,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.75 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…bcecbacked Yes | 18c | 16,149$2,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,934.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…61dfbacked No | 40c | 15,650$6,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,408.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 39c | 15,000$5,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,175.75 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…f47bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 14,118$3,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,388.17 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 54c | 14,112$7,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,634.32 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 6c | 14,103$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.86 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bde…7b73backed Yes | 0c | 12,656$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…20e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,242$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…64b7backed Yes | 0c | 12,050$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…d2afbacked Yes | 0c | 11,762$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 11,477$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 78c | 11,270$8,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.19 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 32c | 11,236$3,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,567.73 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 9c | 11,074$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.92 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c50…1fddbacked Yes | 3c | 10,837$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…ac57backed Yes | 57c | 10,819$6,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,150.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 38c | 10,756$4,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,107.22 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed Yes | 3c | 10,395$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…8c30backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…2213backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…92d3backed Yes | 6c | 9,979$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…bbf0backed Yes | 39c | 9,823$3,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,852.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 78c | 9,401$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.37 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c8…3d3dbacked Yes | 3c | 9,124$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 4c | 9,046$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.43 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…4dfabacked Yes | 1c | 8,766$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…f96ebacked No | 77c | 8,758$6,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 8,714$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa078…419abacked Yes | 64c | 8,478$5,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,383.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f295backed Yes | 4c | 8,261$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ed…9c3bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,685$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…663abacked Yes | 1c | 7,164$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 72c | 7,046$5,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.96 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 37c | 7,032$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,635.36 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…baecbacked No | 77c | 6,800$5,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f7…b90abacked Yes | 14c | 6,549$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…c745backed Yes | 2c | 6,529$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 22c | 6,483$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.04 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 62c | 6,305$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,920.64 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 4c | 6,286$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.16 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0143…239abacked Yes | 17c | 6,272$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 54c | 6,223$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.82 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 11c | 6,166$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…840bbacked Yes | 8c | 6,147$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 6,117$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.69 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 4c | 6,040$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.92 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b7…5bdcbacked Yes | 6c | 6,036$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 54c | 5,936$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa148…f655backed Yes | 11c | 5,569$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 22c | 5,486$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 72c | 5,400$3,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.2 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed No | 48c | 5,172$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.52 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 59c | 5,104$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…d6aebacked No | 76c | 5,088$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 12c | 5,072$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.47 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed Yes | 64c | 5,000$3,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,210 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…3adbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 4,943$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 4,928$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…9386backed No | 79c | 4,801$3,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,641$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 4,603$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc153…a68fbacked Yes | 65c | 4,424$2,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,870.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 20c | 4,383$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.77 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 79c | 4,303$3,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.87 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb762…8d68backed Yes | 5c | 4,118$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 6c | 4,058$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 24c | 4,052$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.63 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 13c | 4,050$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.29 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 80c | 4,000$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…758cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,971$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 3,850$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.37 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Yes | 3c | 3,774$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9cb9backed Yes | 6c | 3,689$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ac…aa7abacked Yes | 16c | 3,601$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 42c | 3,598$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.1 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 39c | 3,585$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.91 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?this page
- Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30No won
- Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.