Middle East · resolved market
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc806bda841f56b4343b6af7b3cde2288cfd0fdd325aeaef7bedce847ea77d075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,010$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.04 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,958$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4e…985dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,871$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…2096backed Yes | 14c | 2,072$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +451.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,033$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 5c | 1,428$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,199$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…6cb6backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…d38ebacked Yes | 4c | 945$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c37…2f0cbacked Yes | 4c | 916$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 5c | 518.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…2515backed Yes | 10c | 486.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 10c | 357.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…1d31backed Yes | 14c | 349.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 16c | 311.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 9c | 305.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…d7c8backed Yes | 7c | 234.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 12c | 210.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed Yes | 10c | 199.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 176.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…8919backed Yes | 39c | 166.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 6c | 163.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 12c | 150.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…306bbacked Yes | 10c | 146.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…7caabacked Yes | 14c | 106.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…1268backed Yes | 22c | 89.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…b308backed Yes | 13c | 87.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 79c | 21.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?this page
- Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30No won
- Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.