Middle East · resolved market
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5191450300fdcb365d50bcc82acf0e67c851d4c894b76d63fb5f8613b10f1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,205$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 11c | 1,185$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 11c | 878$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 819.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 12c | 816$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 11c | 814$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…2096backed Yes | 35c | 569.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +451.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 9c | 508.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 7c | 351.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b9…6d3dbacked Yes | 16c | 317.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 271.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 15c | 220.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 14c | 209.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 53c | 113.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…1268backed Yes | 31c | 95.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 67c | 74.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x987d…ed3fbacked Yes | 18c | 55.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?this page
- Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30No won
- Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?No won
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.