China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cfac875e3fa84e292a97256b74432c236904d1a3e46fe8b489978122bdc663b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,433,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,421,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,433,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 0c | 495,293$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa47…140dbacked Yes | 0c | 189,206$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…6511backed Yes | 0c | 49,535$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…f17fbacked Yes | 0c | 24,583$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…e1f9backed Yes | 0c | 21,342$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…a2a7backed Yes | 1c | 20,748$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146e…ab0bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,706$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…affebacked Yes | 0c | 18,592$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 1c | 16,625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 2c | 16,458$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…ef52backed Yes | 1c | 14,314$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…67f5backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…e289backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked Yes | 77c | 12,895$9,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,866.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…2e20backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…8c51backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Yes | 1c | 9,847$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…b7c1backed Yes | 1c | 8,985$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaa…94e5backed Yes | 47c | 8,967$4,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,229.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 0c | 8,370$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…22d8backed Yes | 4c | 8,205$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 1c | 7,705$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…83cdbacked Yes | 0c | 7,468$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…3c38backed Yes | 1c | 6,743$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed79…1e49backed Yes | 1c | 6,279$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +750.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 73c | 5,529$4,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 1c | 5,180$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +355.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…844ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,610$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 4c | 4,545$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcd…ada0backed Yes | 0c | 4,470$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…9436backed Yes | 1c | 3,570$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…e4e6backed Yes | 0c | 3,511$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…af89backed Yes | 2c | 3,244$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 38c | 3,243$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Yes | 20c | 3,100$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 33c | 3,064$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +401.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed No | 70c | 2,990$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 30c | 2,793$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5882…55a2backed No | 70c | 2,723$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…4a03backed No | 62c | 2,635$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 2,422$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.52 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,282$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 5c | 2,246$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 2,073$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.06 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 3c | 1,988$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 52c | 1,963$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked No | 46c | 1,793$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb848…62c0backed No | 35c | 1,748$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,714$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 30c | 1,661$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 48c | 1,659$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 57c | 1,648$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.79 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 64c | 1,631$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed No | 59c | 1,584$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 13c | 1,575$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.52 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 61c | 1,548$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed Yes | 20c | 1,338$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +453.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…f8fabacked No | 78c | 1,284$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked No | 70c | 1,261$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed No | 47c | 1,246$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.64 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…c050backed Yes | 2c | 1,233$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +587.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…7ddabacked Yes | 5c | 1,122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 1,104$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.97 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 60c | 1,072$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 78c | 1,046$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 45c | 1,017$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,016$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a1…3da9backed Yes | 6c | 1,008$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…323ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 77c | 995.8$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked No | 51c | 976$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…724cbacked Yes | 38c | 933.24$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c5…fe06backed Yes | 7c | 931.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…b900backed Yes | 21c | 926.84$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…96febacked Yes | 55c | 926.75$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf780…be2cbacked No | 63c | 903.13$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 32c | 902.74$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 28c | 889.67$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…2357backed Yes | 47c | 850.9$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 849.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 837.47$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 35c | 800.99$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 23c | 772.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 48c | 762.53$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.13 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 30c | 750$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 35c | 747.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…e109backed Yes | 7c | 746.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 3c | 734.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 50c | 719.98$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 30c | 667.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7928…f432backed No | 58c | 667.53$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?this page
- Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?No won
- Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?Yes won
- Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.