China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f67a201d2d3a057c027748f9287c39c8ac34012bbf8d06fe3ae194c1dc96268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x460a…a5b0backed No | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…fdcdbacked No | 1c | 1,341$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 60c | 953.46$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 30c | 862.14$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 33c | 599.66$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 72c | 574$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 48c | 501.77$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…e4f3backed No | 60c | 496.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 55c | 415.76$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 399.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…2a84backed Yes | 74c | 398.08$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…19acbacked No | 66c | 371.36$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 4c | 323$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…f8fabacked No | 65c | 234.7$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 47c | 226.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…af89backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked No | 5c | 195.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 170.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…a4cfbacked Yes | 56c | 158.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 65c | 153.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed No | 43c | 140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 32c | 125.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 48c | 119.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…6d52backed No | 38c | 118.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 115.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed No | 19c | 112.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 48c | 105.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed Yes | 44c | 104.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +453.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…68a2backed No | 19c | 103.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 75c | 100.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…b040backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked No | 69c | 89.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 82.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked No | 36c | 79.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 47c | 69.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 44c | 67.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…29eabacked Yes | 74c | 67.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…7ffabacked No | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 27c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 58c | 47.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…d8d4backed No | 25c | 41.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 38.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…57f4backed Yes | 76c | 34.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…a39ebacked No | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 58c | 32.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…b942backed No | 56c | 25.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…6db1backed Yes | 44c | 22.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…0c4abacked No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6315…10edbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…131ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf372…9230backed Yes | 57c | 18.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…022bbacked Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…7310backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…541dbacked No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…4b43backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 69c | 14.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?this page
- Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?No won
- Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?No won
- Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.