TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x488c…8c1cbacked No0c9,036$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4737532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No1c4,198$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.181,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes78c2,509$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.1747423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed No1c1,773$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-83%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c1,697$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes46c1,633$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.1228925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa144…963bbacked No5c1,305$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes45c1,164$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.1455336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked No1c1,068$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6810023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes35c1,009$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.584531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes59c955.3$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.4834922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No27c743.88$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes57c719.09$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.0568338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes54c593.73$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.2618731%58 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No65c564.23$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.783,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f29…475abacked Yes62c501.64$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.787233.3%24 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No14c496.53$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3863323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes67c442.05$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.428041.3%33 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c399$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.085,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes34c389.64$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.827945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No48c355.87$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.183,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No72c330.25$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.912,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes40c325.8$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1235063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c319.15$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.11,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes25c300$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22446232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x702e…4357backed Yes30c289.97$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.4720832.7%68 W · 140 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed Yes69c289.8$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2313614.7%20 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba7…9321backed No78c257.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes60c256.32$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3247432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No30c236.26$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.911,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No33c228$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.924,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No42c221.68$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.153,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c217.44$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c215.38$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.942,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes20c212.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.1149622.2%110 W · 386 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No68c201.87$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4818550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7461…3515backed No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c191.6$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.284,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No75c189.64$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14244058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No64c189.26$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.182,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c183.07$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No62c177.85$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes27c170.31$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1323540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c170$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.953,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes31c163.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.735238.5%20 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes39c158.79$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.411,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4989…983ebacked Yes35c156.06$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0633626.8%90 W · 246 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes25c145$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.628942.7%38 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c142.1$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.491,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No70c142$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.92,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes19c140$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11430333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes33c140$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.214635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e3…3134backed Yes23c140$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.34719.1%9 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes19c134.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3672952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes19c132.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7741331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes23c125.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.42,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes50c124.41$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2130131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c122.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.41,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes30c118.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8314744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes24c117.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4711515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x273f…ef14backed No18c111.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204650%23 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes24c110.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.024,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No42c108.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.672,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c101.81$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.814,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes74c100.5$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2545540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes23c100.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7456921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1938655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92c9…c500backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.085437%20 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7526933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7452533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9911330.1%34 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ad…4171backed Yes70c99.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.992250%11 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes19c99.89$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.771031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes74c99.74$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6623633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xded9…0c22backed Yes26c91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdc…e382backed Yes28c90.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.993023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No58c89.55$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7961752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde67…c144backed Yes23c85.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2314835.8%53 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes22c85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1517524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No55c81.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7788650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae60…9c28backed Yes38c78.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.755825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb80b…b047backed Yes33c72.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.73580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+114.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.712535.2%44 W · 81 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b6…798dbacked Yes32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.62035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc995…05a3backed No25c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8db6…8679backed Yes75c66.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.662466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+100.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No73c66.63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6448149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe037…8a91backed Yes24c63.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7817841.6%74 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1cb…af17backed Yes19c62.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.048442.9%36 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c60.59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.451,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4526…2d4bbacked No48c60.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.849159.3%54 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes25c59.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9911624.1%28 W · 88 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c59.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.193,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No25c57.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.664460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes23c56.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.351,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No78c54.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.351,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.