Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea51e07e55f4106df178e7ca4a0ae90eda7d4a0f772f90eea372c9bdcb2e6712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 0c | 9,036$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 1c | 4,198$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 78c | 2,509$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.17 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed No | 1c | 1,773$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 1,697$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 46c | 1,633$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.12 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…963bbacked No | 5c | 1,305$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 1,164$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.14 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked No | 1c | 1,068$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 35c | 1,009$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.58 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 59c | 955.3$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.48 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 743.88$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 57c | 719.09$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.05 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 54c | 593.73$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.26 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 564.23$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 62c | 501.64$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.78 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 14c | 496.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 67c | 442.05$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 399$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 34c | 389.64$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.82 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 355.87$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 330.25$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 40c | 325.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.12 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 319.15$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 300$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 30c | 289.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.47 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 69c | 289.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…9321backed No | 78c | 257.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 60c | 256.32$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 236.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 228$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 221.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 217.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 215.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 212.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.11 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 68c | 201.87$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 191.6$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 75c | 189.64$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 189.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 183.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 62c | 177.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 27c | 170.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 170$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 31c | 163.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 39c | 158.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 35c | 156.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 25c | 145$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 142.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 142$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 19c | 140$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 33c | 140$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 23c | 140$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 19c | 134.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 19c | 132.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 125.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 50c | 124.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 122.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 30c | 118.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 24c | 117.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed No | 18c | 111.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 110.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 42c | 108.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 101.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 74c | 100.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 99.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 74c | 99.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded9…0c22backed Yes | 26c | 91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 28c | 90.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 58c | 89.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 23c | 85.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 81.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 38c | 78.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 33c | 72.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…798dbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed No | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Yes | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 73c | 66.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 24c | 63.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 19c | 62.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 60.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 48c | 60.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 25c | 57.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 56.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 54.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.