Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4ce7dcda61f5c04ce03c485d1e2a48d5ad332d78c4913e54cd514fcb1a556bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,948$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.02 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 2,725$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.64 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 1,697$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 23c | 1,045$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.78 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 26c | 937.03$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.74 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 871.19$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 32c | 816.45$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.24 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 37c | 754.65$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 24c | 752.1$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…8c07backed Yes | 27c | 737.95$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 17c | 634.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 29c | 447.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 434$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 26c | 363.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 73c | 359.76$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 355$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 55c | 351.8$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 338.75$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 320.21$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 20c | 298.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 291.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 25c | 272.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 264$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 245.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 245.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 239.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 236.26$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 23c | 230$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 227$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 221.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 68c | 216.84$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 214$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 207.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 39c | 199.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 25c | 171$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 162.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 30c | 155$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 34c | 148.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 142.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 24c | 126.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 118.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 117$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…1bf7backed Yes | 37c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 103.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 29c | 100.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 28c | 99.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 27c | 98.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 68c | 97.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 93.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 12c | 89.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 62c | 89.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 34c | 88.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 29c | 87.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 71c | 84.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ee48backed Yes | 25c | 81.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 80.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 76.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 75.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 75.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 71.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…798dbacked Yes | 31c | 69.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 78c | 69.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 67.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 61.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 60.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 26c | 58.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 49.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd435…4d02backed Yes | 39c | 49.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 48.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 42c | 48.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked Yes | 22c | 47.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 27c | 47.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.