Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1329f2bec82131fae4cb9c5ee30165cf0e6a6c6525301cb3a59a008633dcc388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 2,829$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 25c | 1,983$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.7 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,965$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,824$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,769$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,687$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 7c | 1,541$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 17c | 1,331$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.36 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,241$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 1,009$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 769.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 28c | 600.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.17 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 18c | 591.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 8c | 519.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 5c | 491.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 3c | 470$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 7c | 455.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 3c | 349.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 24c | 316.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed No | 80c | 312.87$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 75c | 303$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 301.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 12c | 295.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 9c | 288.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 281.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 17c | 265.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 254.9$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 31c | 231.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 219.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 209.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 19c | 205.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 29c | 200.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 196.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 16c | 185.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 13c | 183.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 176.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 10c | 170.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 24c | 169.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 166.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 159.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 75c | 158.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 16c | 150.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 149.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 18c | 144.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 142.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 141.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 137$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 24c | 119.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 80c | 118.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…d341backed No | 79c | 114.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 112$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 23c | 102.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…f856backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 101.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 100.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 72c | 92.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 20c | 90.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 76c | 84.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 80.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 76.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 76c | 74.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 28c | 71.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 70c | 70.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 71c | 69.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 72c | 69.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed No | 77c | 64.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Yes | 29c | 61.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 60.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 50.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…c2d0backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 49.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 70c | 41.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 40.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 37.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…6ef7backed No | 77c | 36.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 29c | 35.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 30.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 29.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23d…8ba5backed No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…e4babacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.