Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1546a51a1f1bcf3cb7cccbd327a6abbf2408e4811bb3b049e0887884ce7bc8b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 4c | 2,524$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,927$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.81 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 18c | 1,044$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 5c | 878.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 779.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 17c | 750$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 7c | 737.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 695.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 610$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 4c | 506.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 469.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 7c | 381.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 10c | 368.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 309.16$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 7c | 308.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 12c | 293.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 5c | 285.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5897…e1c8backed No | 65c | 199.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 198.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 8c | 198$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 8c | 183.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 10c | 173.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 10c | 166.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc8…dcccbacked Yes | 9c | 160.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 147.69$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed No | 79c | 88.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 16c | 78.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…6339backed Yes | 13c | 77.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 76.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 76.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 69.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 60.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 52.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed No | 68c | 49.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 71c | 35.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 79c | 28.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 68c | 27.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 72c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.