Token Launches · resolved market
Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35356aa62c062ec140a22760ff9aeb7a2d7079fa8aa5805319ad9579ad52e3b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f0c…fb96backed No | 50c | 8,134$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,049.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,195$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 76c | 4,871$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.5 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…2ec4backed No | 1c | 1,955$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…c9b8backed No | 58c | 1,733$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 9c | 1,720$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 8c | 1,547$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb6…e322backed No | 5c | 1,320$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…b6f8backed Yes | 45c | 1,221$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 7c | 1,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe119…e30fbacked No | 2c | 999.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 5c | 978.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…ea74backed No | 4c | 917.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…5534backed No | 6c | 877.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aaf…a31ebacked No | 3c | 793.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…cdf3backed No | 6c | 770.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…5337backed No | 3c | 710.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 6c | 676.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 46c | 658.4$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 655.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed No | 2c | 611.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed No | 11c | 610.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 5c | 579.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 2c | 499.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ce…4e71backed No | 41c | 497.75$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…b546backed Yes | 63c | 470.42$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 5c | 399.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 333.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 11c | 287.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfd…e9a8backed No | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 46c | 250$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.3 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…2edfbacked No | 10c | 211$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 33cpaid | +76%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 49c | 204.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…55febacked No | 24c | 204.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…4902backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…0272backed No | 29c | 172.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 15c | 168.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked Yes | 61c | 168.59$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 25c | 148.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 13c | 143.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 70c | 134.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 37c | 123.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…6b73backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…cc4cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…1528backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 20c | 69.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…079abacked Yes | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…6116backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…5b68backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked No | 29c | 47.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 33c | 45.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…bc30backed Yes | 54c | 30.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Yieldbasis FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Yieldbasis FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.